11707 Branridge Rd · Black Jack, MO 63033

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1986 9,583 sqft lot $137/sqft · 19% below area Est $211k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Do not disturb occupants. This property is newly leased at $1,600/mo market rate + utilities. Whether you're expanding your rental portfolio or looking for a low-maintenance investment, this property checks all the boxes with consistent income, strong rental demand, and upside potential. Property is being conveyed as-is and the seller reserves the right to accept an offer at any time. The buyer will be responsible for verifying all property details and condition.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,745
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Brixworth Ct	0.34mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+3%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	71
11678 Galba Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	63
11148 Linnell Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,302 (+5%)	2mo	$186,500	$143	62
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,124 (-9%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	61
11129 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-2%)	6mo	$75,000	$62	56
11565 Mehl Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (+2%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	55
2515 Linnell Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (-13%)	1mo	$109,900	$102	52
4428 Papal Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+6%)	6mo	$129,900	$99	50
11100 Landseer Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-10%)	6mo	$187,000	$168	49
4384 Remus Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-9%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	49
4451 Rhine Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+15%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	44
4443 Remus Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (+9%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $111,345
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.12×
• Total profit: $338,765
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $218	+0% $169	+5% $121	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $103	+0% $169	+5% $236	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $213	base $169	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	44d	3	0.29mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	0.40mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.50mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	0.66mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.70mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.94mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	2d	1	1.01mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.03mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	1.10mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $170,000 Active 468-char remark
16. 2026-04-06
    historical $1,728
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $1,728
18. 2026-01-01
    listed $2,000,000 Active
19. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $2,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-91.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $1,728 RENTLY
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,728 RENTLY
• 2026-01-01 Listed $2,000,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,314 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.