11707 Branridge Rd · Black Jack, MO 63033

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 9,583 sqft lot 2-car garage $129/sqft · 24% below area Est $211k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Do not disturb occupants. This property is newly leased at $1,600/mo market rate + utilities. Whether you're expanding your rental portfolio or looking for a low-maintenance investment, this property checks all the boxes with consistent income, strong rental demand, and upside potential. Property is being conveyed as-is and the seller reserves the right to accept an offer at any time. The buyer will be responsible for verifying all property details and condition.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $160,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$211,152) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.8% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,152
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -24.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11062 Saginaw Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	1mo	$144,900	$118	68
11678 Galba Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+4%)	5mo	$129,900	$101	60
2637 Garham Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+11%)	2mo	$121,000	$88	60
11148 Linnell Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,302 (+5%)	5mo	$186,500	$143	59
11165 Prentice Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-12%)	0mo	$152,000	$140	59
11625 Mehl Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-7%)	3mo	$159,900	$138	59
11160 Landseer Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,129 (-9%)	2mo	$169,000	$150	57
11795 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,141 (-8%)	2mo	$185,000	$162	50
2515 Linnell Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (-13%)	4mo	$109,900	$102	49
4384 Remus Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-9%)	5mo	$209,900	$186	46
2703 Liberty Landing Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,417 (+14%)	1mo	$219,900	$155	42
4451 Rhine Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+15%)	4mo	$165,000	$116	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $116,794
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.77×
• Total profit: $348,289
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $188,500 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $376	+0% $331	+5% $285	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $259	+0% $331	+5% $402	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $371	base $331	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11610 Helenoak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,621	$1.42	68d	1	0.32mi
4973 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,330	$1.82	69d	1	0.36mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	113d	1	0.40mi
11560 Old Halls Ferry Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	1.0	1423	$1,850	$1.30	56d	1	0.47mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	97d	1	0.50mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	88d	1	0.66mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	139d	1	0.70mi
2536 Nathan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,350	$1.29	82d	1	0.77mi
12040 Maidstone Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,831	$1.24	42d	1	0.79mi
2372 Rockymont Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,500	$1.05	42d	1	0.83mi
6203 Kingsfont Pl Unit 11815-07 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.0	845	$1,050	$1.24	2d	1	0.85mi
12558 Evening Shade Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,666	$1.42	42d	1	0.93mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,232	$1.01	0d	16	0.94mi
12536 Early Morning Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,985	$1.54	9d	1	0.94mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,776	$1.50	3d	1	1.01mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	119d	1	1.03mi
2252 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	986	$1,450	$1.47	85d	1	1.06mi
10805 Landseer Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	56d	1	1.07mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	103d	1	1.10mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	139d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service by AmerenNatural gas availableElectricity available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yardFront yardCorner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-08-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-08-29
   days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-08-28
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-08-27
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-08-25
   days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-08-24
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-08-23
   days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-08-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-08-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-08-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-08-19
    days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-08-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-08-17
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-08-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-08-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-08-14
    days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-08-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-08-12
    days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-08-11
    days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-08-10
    days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-08-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-08-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-08-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-08-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
27. 2026-08-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-08-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
29. 2026-07-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-07-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-07-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-07-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-07-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 92 DOM
35. 2026-07-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-07-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-07-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 89 DOM
38. 2026-07-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 86 DOM
40. 2026-07-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 85 DOM
41. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 84 DOM
42. 2026-07-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 83 DOM
43. 2026-07-14
    days on market $170,000 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
45. 2026-07-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-07-11
    days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-10
    days on market $170,000 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 75 DOM
50. 2026-07-06
    days on market $170,000 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $3,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $30,975–$55,755 screening

The property is in fair condition with moderate rehabilitation needs, requiring exterior painting and driveway sealing to improve its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Driveway — Cracks in concrete driveway
• Minor Landscaping — Some patches in grassy yard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Seal driveway cracks — Improves property condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jury Elem. F MO #1,016/1,115 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Central Middle F MO #348/391 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High Hazelwood Central High F MO #455/521 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 1,025,227 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service by AmerenNatural gas availableElectricity available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yardFront yardCorner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

Price history

-91.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $1,728 RENTLY
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,728 RENTLY
• 2026-01-01 Listed $2,000,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,314 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.