202 Broad St · Waverly, MO 64096

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1990 0.75 ac lot Est $229k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1990s ranch situated on a . 75-acre corner lot with scenic river views. Main level has a large living room with fireplace and large windows, laundry room, 2-car attached garage, and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Full finished basement includes a second kitchen, family room, and additional non conforming bedroom with a full bathroom. HUD homes are sold as-is; this property needs some updates and repairs but offers great potential for a buyer ready to make it their own. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Laundry room
• Large living room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SCENIC RIVER VIEWS
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#367 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Santa Fe R-X (rural): math 30% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #302 of 535 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 162 students, 54% FRL); Santa Fe High (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 172 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $105,200 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,408
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Jefferson St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,686 (-2%)	18mo	$169,000	$100	63
402 Jefferson St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+11%)	5mo	$130,000	$68	60
1211 Broad St	0.74mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,758 (+3%)	2mo	$235,000	$134	50
706 W Washington St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,622 (-5%)	10mo	$244,800	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $65,276
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $192,338
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64096

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,840/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $119,730

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $32	+0% $-2	+5% $-35	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-43	+0% $-2	+5% $40	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $29	base $-2	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,840
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe R-X
• NCES district ID: 2903000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,204
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #9304
• State rank: #302 of 535 in MO

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #16168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,197

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.78%
• Current HPI: 277.9244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,840 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.