🏷️ Likely Rental
7941 Irvington Ave · Clayton, OH
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.3/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$72,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This delightful single-story residence offers two cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, ensuring a comfortable living experience. With a living area spanning 792 square feet, the home provides an intimate yet functional space. The property sits on a lot of 0.18 acres, offering ample outdoor space for relaxation or potential gardening endeavors. Currently tenant occupied making this a great investment opportunity!
Key facts
- Full bathroom
- Outdoor space
- 7,684 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $72k).
- Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Northmont City (suburban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #318 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Kleptz Early Childhood Learning Center (833 students, 34% FRL); Northmont Middle School (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C+, #378 of 654 statewide, top 59%, 777 students, 37% FRL); Northmont High School (math 37% / reading 64%, grade D+, #380 of 781 statewide, top 49%, 1,392 students, 34% FRL).
- Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $25k; list at $72k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.33% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.85%
- Cash-on-cash
- 16.27%
- DSCR
- 1.72
- GRM
- 6.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $156,993
- List price
- $72,500
- Delta
- -53.82%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 16 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7853 N Main St | 0.25mi | 2/1.0 | 891 (+12%) | 21mo | $150,000 | $168 | 50 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 7.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.29×
- Total profit
- $5,788
- Equity at exit
- $10,810
- IRR
- 16.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.36×
- Total profit
- $27,640
- Equity at exit
- $6,268
Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 45415
- Active inventory
- 53
- Price-to-rent
- 6.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $966 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$380
- Tax from tax record
- −$77 /mo · $929/yr
- Insurance
- −$30
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$203
- Net cashflow
- $275
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $316 | -5% $296 | +0% $275 | +5% $255 | +10% $234 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $199 | -5% $237 | +0% $275 | +5% $313 | +10% $352 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $312 | -0.5pp $294 | base $275 | +0.5pp $256 | +1.0pp $237 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $18,125
- Closing costs
- $2,175
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 Vinway Ct Unit 1 Dayton, OH | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $850 | $1.13 | 45d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 7835 N Main St Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $900 | $1.00 | 4d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,200 | $1.33 | 45d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,130 | $1.26 | 4d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 651 Rustic Oak Dr Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 878 | $1,015 | $1.16 | 4d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,500 | $1.36 | 15d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1116 | $1,200 | $1.08 | 4d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1115 | $1,200 | $1.08 | 22d | 1 | 1.35mi |
Listing history 20 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $72,500 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $72,500 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $72,500 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $72,500 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $72,500 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $72,500 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $72,500 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $72,500 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $72,500 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $72,500 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $72,500 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $72,500 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $72,500 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $72,500 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $72,500 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-05-18price $72,500 413-char remark
Show marketing remark (413 chars)
This delightful single-story residence offers two cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, ensuring a comfortable living experience. With a living area spanning 792 square feet, the home provides an intimate yet functional space. The property sits on a lot of 0.18 acres, offering ample outdoor space for relaxation or potential gardening endeavors. Currently tenant occupied making this a great investment opportunity!
-
2026-05-18price $72,500 413-char remark
Show marketing remark (413 chars)
This delightful single-story residence offers two cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, ensuring a comfortable living experience. With a living area spanning 792 square feet, the home provides an intimate yet functional space. The property sits on a lot of 0.18 acres, offering ample outdoor space for relaxation or potential gardening endeavors. Currently tenant occupied making this a great investment opportunity!
-
2026-04-08$79,900 Active 413-char remark
Show marketing remark (413 chars)
This delightful single-story residence offers two cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, ensuring a comfortable living experience. With a living area spanning 792 square feet, the home provides an intimate yet functional space. The property sits on a lot of 0.18 acres, offering ample outdoor space for relaxation or potential gardening endeavors. Currently tenant occupied making this a great investment opportunity!
-
2026-04-08$79,900 Active 413-char remark
Show marketing remark (413 chars)
This delightful single-story residence offers two cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, ensuring a comfortable living experience. With a living area spanning 792 square feet, the home provides an intimate yet functional space. The property sits on a lot of 0.18 acres, offering ample outdoor space for relaxation or potential gardening endeavors. Currently tenant occupied making this a great investment opportunity!
-
1988-08-18soldstatus $25,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $929 · $77/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,030 · $86/mo
- Expected delta
- +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 10.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,590
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,061
- − Property taxes
- −$929
- − Insurance
- −$362
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$927
- − Management
- −$927
- − Depreciation
- −$2,109
- Taxable income
- $2,275
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$546
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,757/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Northmont City
- NCES district ID
- 3904872
- Math proficiency
- 52% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 62% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $60,230
- Composite
- 49.53/100
- National rank
- #1995
- State rank
- #318 of 656 in OH
Livability — Clayton
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #363
- US rank
- #5877
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Clayton, OH
- County
- Montgomery · 506,435 people
- City population
- 37,953
- Metro
- Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,171
- Household income
- $78,864
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9.7
Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 523,241 people
- By 2030
- 514,948 · -1.6%
- By 2040
- 493,378 · -5.7%
- By 2050
- 469,639 · -10.2%
- By 2075
- 418,360 · -20.0%
- By 2100
- 353,315 · -32.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 53% Black 42% Two or more races 4%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -151.39%
- Current HPI
- 171.4122
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
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| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
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Price history
+190.0% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-18 Price Changed $72,500 WRIST
- 2026-05-18 Price Changed $72,500 Dayton MLS
- 2026-04-08 Listed $79,900 Dayton MLS
- 2026-04-08 Listed $79,900 WRIST
- 1988-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-10.0%/yrLatest (2025): $929 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…