1984 Prosperity Ct · Union, KY 41091

$389,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2021 3,833 sqft lot Est $417k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 5 year-new 2 story home is 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 2 car garage, patio and covered front porch. The open concept allows a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining and family room areas. The kitchen has all stainless-steel appliances, a gourmet gas stove and a huge center island. The home office is also located on the first floor right off the family room. There is a 1/2 bath as well as a nice cove with a bench that is conveniently located by the garage and patio doors. The second floor has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. The laundry room is located on the second floor offering easy excess to bedrooms. The master bedroom has two walk-in closets, an oversized walk-in shower with bench and two vanities. All walls and floor joist have been insulated as well as the garage and garage door. The community offers maintenance free landscaping, yard and snow removal. Among the great amenities are three pools, club house, fitness center, park, walking trails and fishing ponds. This home will be shown by appt. only. No agents at this time please.

Key facts

• Huge center island
• Walk in closets
• Gourmet gas stove

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GOURMET GAS STOVE
• HUGE CENTER ISLAND
• HOME OFFICE
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• OVERSIZED WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erpenbeck Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #17 of 676 statewide, top 2%, 702 students, 28% FRL); Ockerman Middle School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #47 of 217 statewide, top 22%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 469 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $290,000 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,078
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1984 Prosperity Ct	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,397 (0%)	1mo	$389,900	$163	99
9533 Old Union Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,357 (-2%)	8mo	$539,000	$229	76
1642 Sycamore Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	2,336 (-2%)	3mo	$250,000	$107	64
3733 Evensong Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,661 (+11%)	2mo	$435,000	$163	62
1344 Wilshire Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (-6%)	11mo	$400,000	$177	61
3832 Sonata Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,526 (+5%)	6mo	$390,000	$154	60
9073 Braxton Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,168 (-10%)	1mo	$305,000	$141	55
9044 Braxton Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,111 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$166	48
9743 Cherbourg Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,094 (-13%)	10mo	$385,000	$184	44
9799 Melody Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,750 (+15%)	12mo	$504,000	$183	42
1713 Sherman Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,071 (-14%)	7mo	$360,000	$174	40
9468 Riviera Dr	0.58mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,722 (+14%)	8mo	$635,000	$233	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,559
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-73,446
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41091

• Active inventory: 469
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,561/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,064

Max offer price $367,007

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8560 Wiltshire Way Florence, KY	3.0	3.5	1800	$2,900	$1.61	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $389,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $389,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-08
   price $394,900
5. 2026-04-04
   price $399,800
6. 2026-03-24
   listed $399,900 Active
7. 2026-03-24
   listed $389,900 Active
8. 2026-03-24
   historical
9. 2026-03-13
   price $389,900 1092-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

   Gorgeous 5 year-new 2 story home is 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 2 car garage, patio and covered front porch. The open concept allows a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining and family room areas. The kitchen has all stainless-steel appliances, a gourmet gas stove and a huge center island. The home office is also located on the first floor right off the family room. There is a 1/2 bath as well as a nice cove with a bench that is conveniently located by the garage and patio doors. The second floor has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. The laundry room is located on the second floor offering easy excess to bedrooms. The master bedroom has two walk-in closets, an oversized walk-in shower with bench and two vanities. All walls and floor joist have been insulated as well as the garage and garage door. The community offers maintenance free landscaping, yard and snow removal. Among the great amenities are three pools, club house, fitness center, park, walking trails and fishing ponds. This home will be shown by appt. only. No agents at this time please.

10. 2026-03-05
    listed $394,900 Active 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    Gorgeous 5 year-new 2 story home is 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 2 car garage, patio and covered front porch. The open concept allows a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining and family room areas. The kitchen has all stainless-steel appliances, a gourmet gas stove and a huge center island. The home office is also located on the first floor right off the family room. There is a 1/2 bath as well as a nice cove with a bench that is conveniently located by the garage and patio doors. The second floor has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. All bedrooms have walk-in closets. The laundry room is located on the second floor offering easy excess to bedrooms. The master bedroom has two walk-in closets, an oversized walk-in shower with bench and two vanities. All walls and floor joist have been insulated as well as the garage and garage door. The community offers maintenance free landscaping, yard and snow removal. Among the great amenities are three pools, club house, fitness center, park, walking trails and fishing ponds. This home will be shown by appt. only. No agents at this time please.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,353 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,561
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$8,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,031
• After-tax cash flow: $476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Union

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union, KY
• Population (ZIP): 24,371

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.29%
• Current HPI: 175.3571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $394,900 NKMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $399,800 NKMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $389,900 NKMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $399,900 NKMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $389,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-03-05 Listed $394,900 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+36.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,561 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.