53 Stevenson Pl · Deer Park, NY 11729

$674,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1968 10,246 sqft lot Est $660k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 53 Stephenson Place, Deer Park. This beautifully maintained home offers generous space, modern updates, and exceptional functionality. This residence features three spacious bedrooms and three full bathrooms, including a primary suite with a private en-suite bath. The main level provides a comfortable living area, a dedicated dining area, and a den with a wood-burning fireplace. The eat-in kitchen offers excellent workspace and storage, complemented by pantries, hardwood floors throughout, and marble-finish ceilings. Enjoy peace of mind with updated 200-amp electrical service, two heating zones, central AC, and a roof approximately seven years old. The fully finished basement exp

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (53.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (44.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (53.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#216 in NY, #3,358 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #181 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Quincy Adams Primary School (484 students, 47% FRL); Robert Frost Middle School (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 903 students, 49% FRL); Deer Park High School (math 95% / reading 57%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,314 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 28% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $675k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,243 (53.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.97%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $659,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Pearsall Pl	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,738 (+10%)	4mo	$704,000	$405	74
2091 Deer Park Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+4%)	11mo	$899,000	$545	70
1 Warwick St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+1%)	9mo	$675,000	$422	68
20 Kossuth St	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (+1%)	11mo	$625,000	$391	67
9 Westwood Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-4%)	11mo	$620,000	$406	62
640 Carlls Path	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-4%)	4mo	$715,200	$467	62
532 Nicolls Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-6%)	0mo	$485,000	$324	58
27 Taca Blvd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (+4%)	3mo	$685,000	$417	55
163 Albany St	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,746 (+10%)	8mo	$718,000	$411	53
115 Wright Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,726 (+9%)	12mo	$675,000	$391	52
689 Nicolls Rd	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,714 (+8%)	10mo	$713,000	$416	51
34 Arcadia Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,700 (+7%)	10mo	$760,000	$447	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-239,186
• Equity at exit: $100,645

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-374,707
• Equity at exit: $58,362

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11729

• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$1,174 /mo · $14,086/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $-2,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,323

Max offer price $314,243

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Burlington Ave Deer Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	1d	1	0.74mi
335 Gillette St Dix Hills, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,650	$2.61	11d	1	0.78mi
601 Old Country Rd Deer Park, NY	4.0	1.0	1945	$4,000	$2.06	15d	1	0.78mi
23 Seaman Neck Rd Dix Hills, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	1d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-13
   listed $674,999 Active
3. 2025-11-09
   historical $674,999
4. 2020-01-25
   historical
5. 2019-12-12
   listed $459,000 New
6. 2019-12-06
   historical
7. 2019-11-10
   price $469,000
8. 2019-10-02
   price $475,000
9. 2019-09-25
   price $474,000
10. 2019-09-11
    price $474,999
11. 2019-08-21
    listed $485,000 New
12. 2019-05-31
    historical
13. 2019-02-08
    listed $499,000 New
14. 2018-12-13
    historical
15. 2018-04-27
    listed $540,000 New
16. 2018-03-04
    historical
17. 2018-03-04
    price $459,000
18. 2018-01-23
    listed $439,000 New
19. 2017-12-31
    historical
20. 2017-03-20
    listed $439,000 New
21. 2013-02-02
    historical
22. 2012-03-16
    historical
23. 2012-02-02
    listed $389,000
24. 2012-02-02
    listed $359,000
25. 2000-06-20
    soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,086 · $1,174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,086 · $1,174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$14,086
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,588
• − Management: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable loss: −$37,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608880
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,561
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1268
• State rank: #181 of 590 in NY

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #3358

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, NY
• City population: 26,647
• Population (ZIP): 26,647

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Black 12% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.80%
• Current HPI: 285.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+206.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $674,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Coming Soon $674,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-12 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-10 Price Changed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-02 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-25 Price Changed $474,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-11 Price Changed $474,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-21 Listed $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-08 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-27 Listed $540,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-04 Price Changed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-23 Listed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-20 Listed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-02 Listed $359,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-02 Listed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,086 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.