420 Buckner St · Elsmere, KY 41018

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

3,125 sqft lot $147/sqft · 15% below area Est $177k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

Key facts

• Heart of elsmere
• Close to restaurants
• Close to schools

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• HEART OF ELSMERE
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO HOSPITALS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has a view
• Financial info: Home warranty included

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; House
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Porch; Aluminum clad windows; Aluminum and wood fencing; Shed(s) / storage; Level lot; City street frontage; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (17 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Ceiling fan(s); Recessed lighting; Living room (14 x 13); Dining room (9 x 13); Kitchen (15 x 13); Primary bedroom (17 x 12); Primary bath (10 x 7); Additional room (14 x 7)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Erlanger-Elsmere Independent (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #128 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Howell Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 291 students, 50% FRL); Tichenor Middle School (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 539 students, 54% FRL); Lloyd High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 697 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $115,609 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,847
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -12.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Lytle Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (+3%)	0mo	$205,000	$196	67
412 Garvey Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	896 (-12%)	5mo	$160,000	$179	62
1446 Garvey Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	912 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$219	54
443 Bedinger St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (+1)	928 (-9%)	9mo	$202,500	$218	53
9 Rosebud Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+7%)	1mo	$140,000	$129	51
14 Linwood Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	14mo	$144,000	$136	51
3304 Elizabeth St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (+5%)	8mo	$172,000	$161	46
635 Willow St	0.42mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,136 (+11%)	10mo	$175,000	$154	46
107 Mcalpin Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,121 (+10%)	3mo	$228,000	$203	43
40 Eastern Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (+1)	986 (-3%)	16mo	$127,500	$129	42
426 Timberlake Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+14%)	4mo	$230,000	$197	40
17 Lytle Ave	0.53mi	2/1.5 (+1)	877 (-14%)	8mo	$152,500	$174	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-29,802
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-28,811
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41018

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,078/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $130,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-67	+0% $-109	+5% $-151	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-155	+0% $-109	+5% $-63	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-71	base $-109	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Dove Dr Elsmere, KY	2.0	1.0	784	$1,070	$1.36	21d	1	0.63mi
159 Green River Dr Erlanger, KY	2.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	0d	1	0.84mi
43 Banklick St Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,355	$1.07	5d	3	1.27mi
6827 Shenandoah Dr Florence, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$988	$1.32	4d	5	1.28mi
6805 Sebree Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	901	$1,067	$1.18	0d	14	1.33mi
3422 Cintonya Dr Erlanger, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,030	$1.65	0d	8	1.38mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-09
   historical
8. 2026-03-25
   price $155,000
9. 2026-03-07
   price $165,000
10. 2026-02-14
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus $134,900
12. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus $134,900 Sold 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

13. 2021-10-22
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

14. 2021-10-14
    price $134,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

15. 2021-09-30
    listed $139,900 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

16. 2021-09-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Recently Remodel Home in the heart of Elsmere/Erlanger on a great street that is convenient to all! Open concept Living into a great kitchen with stainless steel appliances, new cabinets, and a large island with a butcher block counter. Large master with a huge walk in closet just for you! Why pay rent when you can have a home that is all your own!

17. 2021-09-23
    price $152,500
18. 2021-09-11
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus $104,000
20. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus $104,000 Closed
21. 2019-10-25
    status Pending
22. 2019-10-21
    price $104,900
23. 2019-10-05
    listed $109,900 Active
24. 2014-08-04
    soldstatus $18,000
25. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $18,000
26. 2014-06-23
    listed $19,900
27. 2014-04-22
    historical
28. 2013-11-09
    listed $25,900
29. 2012-08-09
    soldstatus $10,000
30. 2012-08-07
    listed $10,000
31. 2004-12-19
    historical
32. 2004-06-19
    listed $83,900
33. 1989-12-20
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,078 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,078 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,078
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$946
• After-tax cash flow: $-362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erlanger-Elsmere Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7975
• State rank: #128 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elsmere

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #5733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsmere, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 28,707
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,940
• Household income: $68,605
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 678.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.57%
• Current HPI: 215.9599
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+401.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $150,000 NKMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $155,000 NKMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $165,000 NKMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $175,000 NKMLS
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) $134,900 NKMLS
• 2021-10-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2021-10-14 Price Changed $134,900 NKMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listed $139,900 NKMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2021-09-23 Price Changed $152,500 NKMLS
• 2021-09-11 Listed $155,000 NKMLS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) $104,000 NKMLS
• 2019-10-25 Pending — NKMLS
• 2019-10-21 Price Changed $104,900 NKMLS
• 2019-10-05 Listed $109,900 NKMLS
• 2014-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-01 Sold (MLS) $18,000 NKMLS
• 2014-06-23 Listed $19,900 NKMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2013-11-09 Listed $25,900 NKMLS
• 2012-08-09 Sold (MLS) $10,000 NKMLS
• 2012-08-07 Listed $10,000 NKMLS
• 2004-12-19 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2004-06-19 Listed $83,900 NKMLS
• 1989-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,078 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.