4458 Mayelin Ave NE · St. Michael, MN 55376

$425,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* WOW! * This is the one you’ve been waiting for! Completely move-in ready and meticulously cared for, this 5-bedroom, 3-bath walkout in St. Michael truly checks every box. You’ll love the open main level featuring soaring vaulted ceilings, a sun-drenched eat-in kitchen with a breakfast bar, and durable tile floors. Over $60,000 in recent updates already done for you include; 2026: Cozy electric fireplace. 2025: Brand new Lennox furnace & A/C, beautiful new kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, stainless appliances, high-end flooring, front door, and a new asphalt driveway. 2024: Brand new roof. With 3 bedrooms on the main level—including a private owner’s su

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional mortgage financing available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 3-car garage (approximately 20' x 31')
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas fuel; Electric with circuit breakers and 150 amp service; Power provided by Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential property; Split entry (bi-level) design; Entry level includes main floor living spaces
• Construction: Block foundation; Construction includes block, concrete, and frame; Asphalt roof (8 years old or newer)
• Exterior features: Deck and patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Full chain link fence; Storage shed; In-ground sprinkler system; Corner, irregular lot with medium tree coverage; City street with curbs and paved streets; public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen window; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar/breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Main level bedrooms include Primary, Bedroom 2 (11x11), Bedroom 3 (11x10), and another bedroom (14x12); Lower level bedroom(s) include Bedroom 4 (14x12) and Bedroom 5 (11x10)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: One full main-floor bathroom; Two 3/4 bathrooms (one in basement, one in primary); Double sinks in at least one bathroom; Private primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with daylight/lookout windows and walkout; Sump pump; Vaulted ceiling(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Primary bedroom with private suite and walk-in closet; Main-floor primary bedroom; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Lower-level laundry room with sink; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned); Water osmosis system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in St. Michael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Michael-Albertville School District (rural): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #17 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $231k; list at $425k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $297,585 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-92,821
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-111,905
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55376

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,838/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $358,800

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11811 Frankfort Pkwy NE Saint Michael, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,500	$2.46	2d	13	0.64mi
5055 Lander Ave NE Albertville, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2067	$3,675	$1.78	2d	7	1.18mi
433 1st St NW Saint Michael, MN	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,669	$1.46	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $425,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 671-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $425,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,838 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,299 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,838
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,857
• − Management: −$2,857
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,913
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Michael-Albertville School District
• NCES district ID: 2733790
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $86,897
• Composite: 57.91/100
• National rank: #1042
• State rank: #17 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Michael

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Michael, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• City population: 19,317
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,106
• Household income: $131,266
• Rent vs Own: 9.3% rent · 90.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 132.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.03%
• Current HPI: 229.5977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+160.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $425,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $231,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-15 Sold (MLS) $167,865 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-06 Listed $163,225 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,838 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.