410 Lagoon Ct · Kenansville, FL 34739

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 8,494 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3/2 home in Lake Marian Shores, this wonderful home has an oversized tri-level deck on a canal. This home has lots of custom upgrades like a stone electric fireplace, crown molding and an oversized kitchen and a built in desk. There is a workshop with power, water, fish cleaning station and a covered car port. The canal on this property goes into beautiful 6000 acre Lake Marian where you can fish and water sports. The furniture and boat on this property are negotiable. COME AND SEE THIS AWESOME PROPERTY!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Dual vanities
• Canal access

Tags

• CANAL ACCESS
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN SHELVING
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Workshop on property; Property zoned ORMH; Lot is paved, on a dead-end street and in county; Approximately 0.2 acre lot
• HOA & community: Lake Marian Shores Homeowners Association; HOA required; $100 monthly ($300 quarterly reported); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); Facing east; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Outdoor storage; Seawall (other); Canal frontage and access to freshwater; Located on Lake Marian; 100 feet of waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (single-story)
• Flooring: Recycled/composite flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Community School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); St. Cloud Middle School (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,229 students, 60% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $250k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,995 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $79,696
• Equity at exit: $184,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $244,547
• Equity at exit: $360,962

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34739

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $199,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-213	+0% $-284	+5% $-355	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-352	+0% $-284	+5% $-216	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-221	base $-284	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,900
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kenansville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 858

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 51% White 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.67%
• Current HPI: 256.0668
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+765.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-10 Sold (MLS) $126,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-20 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-23 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2016-11-04 Price Changed $139,900 Beaches MLS
• 2016-08-10 Price Changed $144,900 Beaches MLS
• 2016-03-18 Price Changed $149,900 Beaches MLS
• 2016-02-16 Listed $153,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-07 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-08 Price Changed $167,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-02 Listed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $28,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.