11 Padula Rd · Nicholson, PA 18657

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1979 1.30 ac lot $161/sqft · 25% below area Est $384k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This bi-level ranch home sits on 1.3 acres of beautiful country surroundings, with plenty of yard space, newer metal roof and an instant tenant in lower level. Inside you will find a wonderfully updated, modern main level with all new flooring throughout, brand new kitchen appliances, granite counters, lighting and a washer/dryer combo unit. Come see how many boxes this can check off for you! All OGM rights will transfer.

Key facts

• New flooring
• 1.3 acres
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• 1.3 ACRES
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• UPDATED MODERN MAIN LEVEL
• NEW FLOORING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Driveway parking; Basement access from parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected with 100 amp service and circuit breakers; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Bi-level design; Built in 1979; Block foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction; Metal roof; Block foundation; Year built 1979
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Aluminum siding; Level lot; City street frontage; Dirt and gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Bedroom 1 ~14.6 x 11; Bedroom 2 ~10 x 14; Bedroom 3 ~10.5 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Crawl opening attic access; Full, partially finished, heated walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $289,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$384,379) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (42.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#767 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lackawanna Trail SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #248 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wyoming County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $167,709 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,379
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -24.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,196
• Equity at exit: $48,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,041
• Equity at exit: $34,770

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18657

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $787/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,160

Max offer price $222,459

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $289,900 Active 425-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,684 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,897/yr (+$158/mo · 240.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$787
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$10,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna Trail SD
• NCES district ID: 4212990
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $53,071
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3904
• State rank: #248 of 539 in PA

Livability — Nicholson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #7683

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,043

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,334 people
• By 2030: 25,225 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 22,707 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 20,250 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 15,192 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 10,961 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.1% · R 67.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+38.7 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Current HPI: 250.1268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $289,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

-10.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $787 · -74.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.