1391 E Sonoran Desert Dr · Oro Valley, AZ 85737

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,595 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1994 6,055 sqft lot $173/sqft · 15% below area Est $530k · 15% under $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set within the gated enclave of La Reserve, this three bedroom, two bathroom residence blends architectural character with effortless style. Inside, soaring cathedral ceilings and a custom see through fireplace anchor the grand living and great room spaces, each distinguished by its own artisan hearth, one crafted in hand laid stone and the other in Italian marble. The first floor showcases stunning travertine flooring, an elegant formal dining area, and a spacious great room designed for both comfort and sophistication. The gourmet kitchen is a dream for the culinary enthusiast, appointed with the highest-grade granite countertops, custom Alderwood cabinetry with crown molding, deep drawer storage, and Viking Professional appliances including a warming drawer. Above it all, a loft floa over the great room, adding versatility and architectural drama. The primary suite offers a retreat level experience with a soaking tub, double vanity, walk in shower, and a large walk in closet. Outdoors, sculpted desert landscaping, a tranquil front fountain, and an expansive covered patio frame the mountain backdrop, creating a serene and elevated living experience in one of Oro Valley's most prestigious gated communities.

Key facts

• Gated enclave
• Cathedral ceilings
• Italian marble

Tags

• GATED ENCLAVE
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• CUSTOM SEE THROUGH FIREPLACE
• ARTISAN HEARTH
• HAND LAID STONE
• ITALIAN MARBLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $389k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $449k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,063 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $530,371
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -15.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1705 E Deer Shadow Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,499 (-4%)	6mo	$480,000	$192	69
10269 N Calle Del Carnero	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,505 (-4%)	2mo	$615,000	$246	67
10290 N Carristo Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,346 (-10%)	2mo	$840,418	$358	63
10285 N Carristo Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,309 (-11%)	1mo	$560,000	$243	62
10318 N Alder Spring Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0	2,292 (-12%)	6mo	$584,325	$255	61
1798 E Placita Del Metate	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,858 (+10%)	10mo	$724,000	$253	58
1250 E El Conquistador Way	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,470 (-5%)	1mo	$970,000	$393	56
10265 N Carristo Dr	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,292 (-12%)	8mo	$815,000	$356	56
10053 N Alder Spring Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,407 (-7%)	2mo	$599,000	$249	53
10195 N Alder Spring Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,349 (-10%)	10mo	$640,000	$272	51
1822 E Pusch Wilderness Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,350 (-9%)	10mo	$570,000	$243	49
10231 N Cliff Dweller Pl	0.54mi	3/3.0	2,958 (+14%)	16mo	$1,100,000	$372	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-72,410
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-65,802
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85737

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,464/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,861

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $151	+0% $23	+5% $-104	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-130	+0% $23	+5% $177	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $138	base $23	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1184 Camino Diestro Unit 11 Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1851	$4,500	$2.43	24d	1	0.53mi
1184 Camino Diestro Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.5	1851	$4,500	$2.43	44d	1	0.53mi
836 Camino Diestro Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.5	1851	$3,400	$1.84	17d	1	0.63mi
836 Camino Diestro Unit none Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1851	$3,400	$1.84	17d	1	0.63mi
9876 N Ridge Shadow Pl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2119	$3,495	$1.65	44d	1	0.87mi
293 E Jasper Ct Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2250	$2,950	$1.31	3d	1	0.92mi
2221 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$3,500	$1.99	24d	1	1.03mi
2227 E Stone Stable Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1759	$3,500	$1.99	24d	1	1.03mi
272 E Southern Pines Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1811	$3,800	$2.10	44d	1	1.06mi
11096 N Pusch Ridge View Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	3420	$12,000	$3.51	44d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $449,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $599,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $599,000 Active 1231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1231 chars)

    Set within the gated enclave of La Reserve, this three bedroom, two bathroom residence blends architectural character with effortless style. Inside, soaring cathedral ceilings and a custom see through fireplace anchor the grand living and great room spaces, each distinguished by its own artisan hearth, one crafted in hand laid stone and the other in Italian marble. The first floor showcases stunning travertine flooring, an elegant formal dining area, and a spacious great room designed for both comfort and sophistication. The gourmet kitchen is a dream for the culinary enthusiast, appointed with the highest-grade granite countertops, custom Alderwood cabinetry with crown molding, deep drawer storage, and Viking Professional appliances including a warming drawer. Above it all, a loft floa over the great room, adding versatility and architectural drama. The primary suite offers a retreat level experience with a soaking tub, double vanity, walk in shower, and a large walk in closet. Outdoors, sculpted desert landscaping, a tranquil front fountain, and an expansive covered patio frame the mountain backdrop, creating a serene and elevated living experience in one of Oro Valley's most prestigious gated communities.

16. 2026-03-15
    historical
17. 2025-11-22
    status Active
18. 2025-11-19
    historical Active Contingent
19. 2025-10-29
    status Active
20. 2025-10-15
    historical
21. 2025-10-01
    price $579,900
22. 2025-08-03
    listed $589,900 Active
23. 2004-03-19
    soldstatus $214,000
24. 2003-12-26
    listed $229,900
25. 2003-12-24
    historical
26. 2003-11-27
    listed $239,500
27. 2003-10-24
    historical
28. 2003-06-17
    listed $225,000
29. 2002-11-07
    soldstatus $245,000
30. 1999-09-30
    historical
31. 1999-08-26
    soldstatus $181,000
32. 1999-08-25
    soldstatus $220,000
33. 1999-08-23
    soldstatus $178,618
34. 1999-01-29
    listed $257,500
35. 1998-10-05
    listed $220,000
36. 1998-09-15
    historical
37. 1998-07-02
    listed $225,000
38. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus $176,200
39. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus $177,625
40. 1993-12-17
    listed $176,200
41. 1991-11-12
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,464 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,464 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$4,464
• − Insurance: −$3,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,735
• − Management: −$3,735
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$7,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $2,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,785
• Household income: $107,348
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.56%
• Current HPI: 261.4417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+630.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $599,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-19 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $579,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-03 Listed $589,900 MLSSAZ
• 2004-03-19 Sold (MLS) $214,000 MLSSAZ
• 2003-12-26 Listed $229,900 MLSSAZ
• 2003-12-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-11-27 Listed $239,500 MLSSAZ
• 2003-10-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-06-17 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1999-08-26 Sold (MLS) $181,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $178,618 Public Records
• 1999-01-29 Listed $257,500 MLSSAZ
• 1998-10-05 Listed $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 1998-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1998-07-02 Listed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $177,625 Public Records
• 1994-07-01 Sold (MLS) $176,200 MLSSAZ
• 1993-12-17 Listed $176,200 MLSSAZ
• 1991-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,464 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.