9590 Robinson Creek Rd · Virgie, KY 41572

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 152 Days on market

Built 1999 $97/sqft · at area comps Est $134k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home with a complete remodeled throughout. This charming property offers two bedrooms, two full baths, a comfortable living room, kitchen, dining area, laundry room, and a versatile bonus room that can be used as a third bedroom or home office. Updates include a new hot water heater, new furnace, and a new roof the asphalt driveway and storage building at extra convenience. A wonderful home, ready for its next family.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New hot water heater
• Remodeled throughout

Tags

• REMODELED THROUGHOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-62/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#468 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 54% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $139k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $106,216 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,190
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 3.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,008
• Equity at exit: $58,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $50,962
• Equity at exit: $88,151

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41572

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $138,081

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $34	+0% $-5	+5% $-45	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-47	+0% $-5	+5% $37	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $30	base $-5	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-02-23
    price $159,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Move-in ready home with a complete remodeled throughout. This charming property offers two bedrooms, two full baths, a comfortable living room, kitchen, dining area, laundry room, and a versatile bonus room that can be used as a third bedroom or home office. Updates include a new hot water heater, new furnace, and a new roof the asphalt driveway and storage building at extra convenience. A wonderful home, ready for its next family.

20. 2026-01-20
    listed $180,000 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Move-in ready home with a complete remodeled throughout. This charming property offers two bedrooms, two full baths, a comfortable living room, kitchen, dining area, laundry room, and a versatile bonus room that can be used as a third bedroom or home office. Updates include a new hot water heater, new furnace, and a new roof the asphalt driveway and storage building at extra convenience. A wonderful home, ready for its next family.

21. 2006-02-01
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $690 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 73.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$602
• After-tax cash flow: $539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Virgie

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #468
• US rank: #23365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,266

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Current HPI: 136.9759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+140.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $159,000 EKAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $180,000 EKAR
• 2006-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $690 · +618.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.