308 Valley Ridge Dr · Red Oak, TX 75154

$360,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2003 6,795 sqft lot Est $371k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offering approximately 3,400 sq. ft. in a quiet Red Oak neighborhood. Featuring multiple living areas, abundant natural light, generously sized bedrooms, and a versatile floor plan perfect for families or entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat, while the garage has been enhanced with a newly installed epoxy floor, providing a clean, polished look and low-maintenance durability. Two small outdoor storage sheds are on property for more easily accessible storage options. Conveniently located with the neighborhood elementary school nearby and the high school less than a mile away. Easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways makes thi

Key facts

• Private retreat
• Versatile floor plan
• 6,795 sq ft lot

Tags

• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• VERSATILE FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• NEWLY INSTALLED EPOXY FLOOR
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee of $200; HOA covers management fees; HOA managed by Goodwin and Company

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Property built in 2003; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 2003
• Exterior features: Lot in Fox Hollow Estates Phase I; Less than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, linen closet and custom closet system; Additional bedrooms located on second level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Two living areas; One dining area; Fireplace in living room; 13 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections (standard laundry utilities implied)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Oak El (math 42% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 528 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,902 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.79%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,460
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Foxtail Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,040 (+1%)	6mo	$339,777	$112	83
106 Foxwood Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,112 (+3%)	2mo	$365,000	$117	72
202 Bob White Dr	0.53mi	5/4.0	3,024 (+0%)	2mo	$304,900	$101	69
119 Hunters Trl	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,052 (+1%)	18mo	$360,900	$118	67
100 Bob White Dr	0.66mi	5/3.5	2,988 (-1%)	0mo	$305,000	$102	65
107 Evening Star Cir	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,836 (-6%)	13mo	$349,000	$123	59
111 Evening Star Cir	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,708 (-10%)	6mo	$340,000	$126	56
115 Oak Hollow Ln	0.68mi	5/3.5	3,158 (+5%)	11mo	$389,900	$123	49
566 Glenn Ln	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,664 (-12%)	11mo	$650,000	$244	49
339 Crestview Dr	0.63mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,714 (-10%)	2mo	$400,000	$147	47
310 Crestview Dr	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,808 (-7%)	16mo	$580,000	$207	46
115 Basswood Dr	0.75mi	5/4.5	3,417 (+13%)	10mo	$484,999	$142	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-67,786
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-70,871
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,187/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,359

Max offer price $333,460

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
545 Hazeltine Rd Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	2126	$2,899	$1.36	10d	1	1.02mi
643 Hazeltine Rd Red Oak, TX	5.0	3.0	3267	$3,400	$1.04	44d	1	1.15mi
213 Camden St Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,700	$1.29	1d	2	1.33mi
101 Sycamore Cir Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.5	2578	$2,586	$1.00	17d	1	1.36mi
656 Bethpage Dr Red Oak, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$3,200	$1.23	1d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $360,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,187 · $599/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,187 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$7,187
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,042
• − Management: −$3,042
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$7,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $90/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $360,000 NTREIS
• 2003-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,187 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.