27634 County Route 342, Lot 21 · Fort Drum, NY 13612

$76,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 990 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand new mobile home in a well-maintained park! Located between Watertown and Fort Drum, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect balance of comfort, convenience, and affordability. Enjoy being just a short drive from numerous state parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping, and dining. Step inside to find a bright, modern interior featuring an open-concept layout, new appliances, and stylish finishes throughout. The thoughtfully designed floor plan provides comfortable living space and low-maintenance living. Enjoy homeownership without the high costs of traditional housing—ideal for those seeking simplicity, convenience, and value. Whether you're downsizing, purchasing your first

Key facts

• Well-maintained park
• Short drive
• State parks

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED PARK
• SHORT DRIVE
• STATE PARKS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION AREAS
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $515 per month

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range / oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl and varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Great room; Kitchen/family room combination; Living/dining room; Primary bedroom on the main level; Primary bedroom with private bath; Main-level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#996 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, health & safety D.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($529 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,205 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.62%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27298 State Route 342	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+14%)	11mo	$50,000	$44	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $63,599
• Equity at exit: $33,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $150,141
• Equity at exit: $50,763

Cash invested: $21,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13612

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$401
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $76,500

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,125
• Closing costs: $2,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $76,500 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,500 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,500 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,500 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,500 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $76,500 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,500 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,500 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,500 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,500 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,500 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,500 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,500 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,500 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $76,500 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $76,500
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $71,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,285
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$2,225
• Taxable income: $9,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,347
• After-tax cash flow: $8,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready mobile home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good balance of comfort, convenience, and affordability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's interior and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's interior and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,599
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4977
• State rank: #502 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Drum

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #19459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,673
• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Korean 3% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 415.9603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $76,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $71,900 UNYREIS