236 Keeper Dr · Irvine, CA 92618

$1,298,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2021 $597/sqft · at area comps Est $1527k · 15% under $539/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful contemporary Corner End unit condo with amazing views in the heart of Great Park. Walking Distance to the highly rated Portola High and Solia Park School (k-8th), This is the best selling floor Plan Bolero Residence 2X , features a very Cozy private yard, but also quite spacious as well , with 2432 square feet. Also, this three-story home have four bedrooms, features a downstairs mother in law bedroom, three and half bathrooms, and a large balcony is located on the corner and is very bright. This is a modern floor plan for modern living! It features an open living area with a fully equipped kitchen, brand new washer & dryer and refrigerator. Upgraded flooring, stylish interiors, upgraded gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Large granite Island. This house is within a walking distance to the Portola High School , which is part of the award-winning Irvine Unified School District. Residents will also be able to take advantage of all of the wonderful amenities that the Great Park Neighborhoods, which includes access to 21 incredible community pools. (Including one of the only Olympic-sized pools in Irvine, CA. ), playgrounds, BBQs, clubhouses and more. You will also be in close proximity to the Irvine Spectrum, which is a great shopping destination in Southern California, featuring a variety of stores such as Nordstrom, Target, and Anthropologie, along with dining and entertainment options like the Regal movie theater, 12 miles to UC Irvine, South Coast Plaza and Santa Ana Airport and 14 miles to Laguna Beach.

Key facts

• Corner end unit
• Upgraded flooring
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CORNER END UNIT
• PRIVATE YARD
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-58k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $446k (65.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $552k (57.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $446k (65.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,519/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 4078% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $92k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $446,099 (65.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.92%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,527,222
• List price: $1,298,000
• Delta: -8.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-309,937
• Equity at exit: $419,130

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-467,208
• Equity at exit: $538,887

Cash invested: $363,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,807
• Tax from tax record: −$1,295 /mo · $15,545/yr
• Insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$539
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,159
• Net cashflow: $-4,822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,623

Max offer price $446,099

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $324,500
• Closing costs: $38,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
248 Merit Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1812	$5,200	$2.87	24d	1	0.13mi
121 Baluster Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	2192	$5,500	$2.51	3d	1	0.17mi
229 Chorus Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2780	$5,700	$2.05	43d	1	0.22mi
123 Bosal Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2669	$6,500	$2.44	43d	1	0.25mi
104 Chant Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2840	$5,800	$2.04	24d	1	0.28mi
430 Lobata Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2914	$6,600	$2.26	43d	1	0.30mi
349 Proctor Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2914	$6,000	$2.06	43d	1	0.30mi
243 Yerba Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2429	$7,000	$2.88	10d	1	0.33mi
243 Yerba Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2429	$6,000	$2.47	18d	1	0.33mi
160 Sentosa Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1602	$4,600	$2.87	7d	1	0.33mi
236 Yerba Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2429	$5,800	$2.39	43d	1	0.35mi
170 Yugen Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2623	$5,200	$1.98	43d	1	0.35mi
123 Restore Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2032	$5,450	$2.68	43d	1	0.38mi
285 Lynx Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2031	$4,900	$2.41	13d	1	0.40mi
258 Sash Irvine, CA	4.0	4.0	2056	$5,200	$2.53	6d	1	0.41mi
144 Sash Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	2064	$5,200	$2.52	24d	1	0.44mi
278 Tank Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2356	$5,500	$2.33	13d	1	0.46mi
158 Restore Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2216	$5,299	$2.39	43d	1	0.46mi
136 Seep Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2566	$6,300	$2.46	24d	1	0.48mi
110 Seep Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2599	$5,900	$2.27	43d	1	0.49mi
352 Tank Unit 352 Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2031	$5,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.51mi
100 Billings Irvine, CA	4.0	3.0	2260	$5,700	$2.52	4d	1	0.56mi
100 Harrier Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2527	$5,800	$2.30	17d	1	0.67mi
321 Loon Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1979	$5,300	$2.68	44d	1	0.67mi
640 Sonia Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	2013	$5,000	$2.48	24d	1	0.68mi
130 Sculpture Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2892	$5,500	$1.90	43d	1	0.69mi
301 Shoveler Irvine, CA	4.0	3.0	2546	$4,800	$1.89	43d	1	0.71mi
110 Sculpture Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2892	$5,250	$1.82	43d	1	0.72mi
101 Sculpture Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2815	$5,500	$1.95	13d	1	0.75mi
512 Neilson Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1615	$5,000	$3.10	43d	1	0.85mi
527 Mulligan Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	2567	$5,500	$2.14	24d	1	0.85mi
121 Billings Irvine, CA	4.0	3.5	2260	$5,300	$2.35	43d	1	0.85mi
134 Modjeska Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1789	$5,200	$2.91	43d	1	1.00mi
136 Modjeska Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1971	$5,500	$2.79	11d	1	1.01mi
172 Scale Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2384	$5,500	$2.31	43d	1	1.01mi
191 Excursion Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1813	$4,900	$2.70	43d	1	1.22mi
110 Briar Rose Irvine, CA	4.0	3.0	2928	$6,995	$2.39	3d	1	1.35mi
101 Windswept Irvine, CA	4.0	4.0	2916	$7,200	$2.47	43d	1	1.35mi
215 Carmine Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	2198	$5,500	$2.50	4d	1	1.35mi
24535 Via Tequila Lake Forest, CA	4.0	2.5	2300	$5,500	$2.39	24d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $539 · $6,468/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,298,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,298,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,298,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,298,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $1,298,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,360,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,360,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,360,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,360,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,360,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,360,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,360,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,360,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,360,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,390,000 Active 1560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1560 chars)

    Beautiful contemporary Corner End unit condo with amazing views in the heart of Great Park. Walking Distance to the highly rated Portola High and Solia Park School (k-8th), This is the best selling floor Plan Bolero Residence 2X , features a very Cozy private yard, but also quite spacious as well , with 2432 square feet. Also, this three-story home have four bedrooms, features a downstairs mother in law bedroom, three and half bathrooms, and a large balcony is located on the corner and is very bright. This is a modern floor plan for modern living! It features an open living area with a fully equipped kitchen, brand new washer & dryer and refrigerator. Upgraded flooring, stylish interiors, upgraded gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Large granite Island. This house is within a walking distance to the Portola High School , which is part of the award-winning Irvine Unified School District. Residents will also be able to take advantage of all of the wonderful amenities that the Great Park Neighborhoods, which includes access to 21 incredible community pools. (Including one of the only Olympic-sized pools in Irvine, CA. ), playgrounds, BBQs, clubhouses and more. You will also be in close proximity to the Irvine Spectrum, which is a great shopping destination in Southern California, featuring a variety of stores such as Nordstrom, Target, and Anthropologie, along with dining and entertainment options like the Regal movie theater, 12 miles to UC Irvine, South Coast Plaza and Santa Ana Airport and 14 miles to Laguna Beach.

16. 2025-02-15
    historical $5,300
17. 2025-02-06
    price $5,300
18. 2025-01-20
    listed $5,480

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,545 · $1,295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,545 · $1,295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,708
• − Property taxes: −$15,545
• − Insurance: −$6,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,298
• − Management: −$5,298
• − HOA: −$6,468
• − Depreciation: −$37,760
• Taxable loss: −$83,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,003
• After-tax cash flow: $-37,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4078.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25265.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,390,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-15 Rental Removed $5,300 CRMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $5,300 CRMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed for Rent $5,480 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,545 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.