707 N 9th St · Ballinger, TX 76821

$132,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1930 9,234 sqft lot $101/sqft · 8% above area Est $123k · 8% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has had a cosmetic overhaul on the inside and out. This clean cute little home will not last long. This home has a very sizable back yard with a nice workshop or storage. We will be installing a new stove in the kitchen before the sale of the property.

Key facts

• New stove
• Sizable back yard
• Workshop or storage

Tags

• SIZABLE BACK YARD
• WORKSHOP OR STORAGE
• NEW STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-236/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Ballinger — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, schools F.
• Ballinger ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #496 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($916 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,783 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,782
• List price: $132,500
• Delta: 7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 N Broadway St	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-14%)	1mo	$139,900	$124	63
1105 N 5th Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,424 (+9%)	7mo	$158,000	$111	58
1203 8th St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (+8%)	13mo	$125,000	$89	57
403 Crosson St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,390 (+6%)	13mo	$85,000	$61	52
507 Hamilton Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (-6%)	10mo	$149,700	$121	52
1209 15th St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,312 (+0%)	15mo	$82,000	$63	51
802 N 11th St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,492 (+14%)	12mo	$164,900	$111	48
509 N 3rd St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-1%)	20mo	$114,900	$89	48
1203 N 5th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (-11%)	8mo	$129,000	$111	47
909 N 5th St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (+9%)	14mo	$65,000	$46	46
1200 N 8th St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,487 (+14%)	19mo	$156,500	$105	38
108 Largent Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,154 (-12%)	7mo	$142,500	$123	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $22,466
• Equity at exit: $67,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $72,565
• Equity at exit: $111,498

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76821

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $129,032

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,500 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,500 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,500 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,500 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $132,500 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,500 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,500 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,500 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,500 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,500 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,500 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,500 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,500 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $132,500 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    This home has had a cosmetic overhaul on the inside and out. This clean cute little home will not last long. This home has a very sizable back yard with a nice workshop or storage. We will be installing a new stove in the kitchen before the sale of the property.

16. 2026-02-16
    listed $135,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    This home has had a cosmetic overhaul on the inside and out. This clean cute little home will not last long. This home has a very sizable back yard with a nice workshop or storage. We will be installing a new stove in the kitchen before the sale of the property.

17. 2024-09-25
    soldstatus Closed 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

18. 2024-08-12
    status Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

19. 2024-08-09
    status Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

20. 2024-07-18
    status Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

21. 2024-06-05
    status Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

22. 2024-05-07
    price $138,500 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

23. 2024-04-09
    price $140,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

24. 2024-02-27
    price $142,500 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

25. 2024-02-21
    listed $145,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This home turned out awesome!! From a complete cosmetic overhaul with new gas furnace, new gas line, and other repairs throughout. We are looking forward to hearing from you. This home will not last long.

26. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus
27. 2003-05-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,067/yr (+$89/mo · 78.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$2,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,665
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #496 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ballinger

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #11849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballinger, TX
• City population: 4,572
• Population (ZIP): 4,572

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 20% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Current HPI: 168.3222
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $132,500 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-16 Listed $135,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-09-25 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2024-08-12 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-08-09 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-07-18 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-06-05 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $138,500 SAAR TX
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $140,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $142,500 SAAR TX
• 2024-02-21 Listed $145,000 SAAR TX
• 2023-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.