2504 Chance Ave · Elkhart, IN 46514

$144,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $109/sqft · at area comps Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the perfect blend of style and durability in this stunning 2025 Fairmont Home. Featuring full drywall throughout for a premium, site-built feel, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers an elegant open-concept layout flooded with natural light. The heart of the home is a sleek kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and a sliding glass door that leads directly to a charming covered half porch, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The primary suite serves as a true sanctuary, boasting a generous walk-in closet and a modern walk-in shower. From the polished finishes to the inviting outdoor space, every detail of this Fairmont model is engineered for comfort and high-end appeal.

Key facts

• Full drywall
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• FULL DRYWALL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED HALF PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Elkhart Community Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #271 of 301 in IN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Osolo Elementary School (math 20% / reading 18%, grade F, #829 of 994 statewide, top 84%, 490 students, 76% FRL); North Side Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #263 of 330 statewide, top 80%, 627 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $136,065 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,325
• List price: $144,750
• Delta: 0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,725
• Equity at exit: $21,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $30,673
• Equity at exit: $12,515

Cash invested: $40,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46514

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,171/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $144,750

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $186	+0% $136	+5% $86	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $79	+0% $136	+5% $192	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $173	base $136	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,188
• Closing costs: $4,342
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1875 Osolo Rd Elkhart, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,000	$1.05	22d	1	0.64mi
2002 Raintree Dr Elkhart, IN	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,479	$1.43	22d	2	0.98mi
2304 Grant St Elkhart, IN	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,750 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,750 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,750 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,750 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,750 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,750 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,750 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,750 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,750 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $144,750 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,750 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,750 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,750 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,750 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,750 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,750 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,750 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,750 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $144,750 Active 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of style and durability in this stunning 2025 Fairmont Home. Featuring full drywall throughout for a premium, site-built feel, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers an elegant open-concept layout flooded with natural light. The heart of the home is a sleek kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and a sliding glass door that leads directly to a charming covered half porch, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The primary suite serves as a true sanctuary, boasting a generous walk-in closet and a modern walk-in shower. From the polished finishes to the inviting outdoor space, every detail of this Fairmont model is engineered for comfort and high-end appeal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,108
• − Property taxes: −$2,171
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,211
• Taxable loss: −$719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $1,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its current condition and value. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — No appliances shown.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — No fixtures shown.
• Major Roof — No roof shown.
• Major Exterior siding — No siding shown.
• Major Flooring — No flooring shown.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No walls/paint shown.
• Major Windows — No windows shown.
• Major Foundation/structure — No foundation/structure shown.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanicals shown.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal shown.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the home's appeal.
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures improve the home's functionality.
• Resale New roof — A new roof ensures the home's structural integrity.
• Resale New exterior siding — Fresh siding improves the home's curb appeal.
• Resale New flooring — Updated flooring enhances the home's aesthetic and durability.
• Resale New interior walls/paint — Fresh paint and walls improve the home's overall appearance.
• Resale New windows — Modern windows improve energy efficiency and aesthetics.
• Resale New HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC ensures comfort and energy efficiency.
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard enhances the home's curb appeal and value.
• Rental Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard enhances the home's rental appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · No appliances shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · No fixtures shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No roof shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · No siding shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No walls/paint shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No windows shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No foundation/structure shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanicals shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal shown.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the home's appeal. ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures improve the home's functionality. ↑
• Resale New roof — A new roof ensures the home's structural integrity. ↑
• Resale New exterior siding — Fresh siding improves the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Resale New flooring — Updated flooring enhances the home's aesthetic and durability. ↑
• Resale New interior walls/paint — Fresh paint and walls improve the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Resale New windows — Modern windows improve energy efficiency and aesthetics. ↑
• Resale New HVAC/mechanicals — Upgraded HVAC ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard enhances the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard enhances the home's rental appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhart Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803270
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 18.45/100
• National rank: #8928
• State rank: #271 of 301 in IN

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #9852

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elkhart, IN
• County: Elkhart County · 107,928 people
• City population: 74,260
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,389
• Household income: $65,833
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1061.0

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.78%
• Current HPI: 225.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $144,750 Zillow