11924 Sylvia St · Pasadena Hills, FL 33525

$256,490

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 1,600 sqft lot $165/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GRAND OPENING!!! Create lifelong memories when you step inside your brand new three bedroom, two and half bath townhome with beautiful, new finishes throughout. Picture yourself in the kitchen cooking using your brand new stainless steel appliances. When it's time to call it a day, head up to your large primary bedroom, which features an oversized walk-in closet and an attached bathroom.

Key facts

• $165 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-580 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $171,836 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.69%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-78,344
• Equity at exit: $38,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-115,131
• Equity at exit: $22,177

Cash invested: $71,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,847/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $172,557

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,122
• Closing costs: $7,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11916 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	5d	1	0.03mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	18d	1	0.03mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	24d	1	0.03mi
11898 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	15d	1	0.04mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	18d	1	0.05mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	24d	1	0.05mi
37015 Waldo Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1480	$3,750	$2.53	24d	1	0.68mi
38210 Williams Aire St Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	24d	1	0.70mi
37011 Bear Branch Dr Dade City, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1730	$1,837	$1.06	2d	16	0.79mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$1,699	$0.85	2d	16	0.89mi
37228 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,750	$1.44	3d	1	1.36mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234477P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,594	$2.98	2d	1	1.39mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	24d	1	1.39mi
37215 Grassy Hill Ln Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	24d	1	1.39mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234475P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,535	$2.93	2d	1	1.41mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $165 · $1,980/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-24
   status Active
3. 2025-09-18
   historical
4. 2025-09-16
   listed $256,490 Active
5. 2025-07-11
   soldstatus $527,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,847
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$7,462
• Taxable loss: −$11,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-51.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listed $256,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $527,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+148.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $506 · +148.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.