5200 Irvine Blvd #190 · Irvine, CA 92620

$430,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1978 3,400 sqft lot $299/sqft · 22% below area Est $548k · 22% under $289/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the best kept secret in Orange County. The Groves is a private gated community with wonderful amenities and activities for everyone to enjoy. This comfortable 2 or 3 bedroom home offering a versatile office with built-in desk that can serve as an extra bedroom. The spacious family room features newer flooring and a slider to a screened, private, quiet patio; the kitchen is open to the family room—perfect for entertaining—with generous counter space and a breakfast bar. The large living room is bright and light and features plantation shutters throughout. Relax on the front porch and enjoy the scent of the lemon tree, with an orange tree nearby. Property includes a cov

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered carport
• Counter space

Tags

• SCREENED PATIO AREA
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COUNTER SPACE
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• RENOVATED HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $410k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Northwood Elementary (516 students, 31% FRL); Sierra Vista Middle (1,126 students, 17% FRL); Northwood High (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A-, #51 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,251 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($147k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $409,803 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $548,179
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -12.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5200 Irvine Blvd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$535,000	$372	99
5200 Irvine Blvd. Space 250	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$395,000	$274	99
5200 Irvine Blvd #123	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$405,000	$281	98
5200 Irvine Blvd #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$529,000	$367	96
5200 Irvine #109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	0mo	$689,000	$449	88
5200 Irvine Blvd #505	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$600,000	$417	85
5200 Irvine Blvd #71	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,445 (+0%)	18mo	$635,000	$439	85
5200 Irvine Blvd #331	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$450,000	$313	81
5200 Irvine Blvd Spc 377	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	10mo	$625,000	$431	79
5200 Irvine Blvd #286	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$565,000	$453	77
5200 Irvine Blvd #94	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	16mo	$570,000	$457	64
5200 Irvine #258	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+14%)	11mo	$635,000	$387	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.48% appreciation · 0.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $55,395
• Equity at exit: $180,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $160,845
• Equity at exit: $269,524

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92620

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$289
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$861
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,565

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $543	+0% $421	+5% $299	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $259	+0% $421	+5% $583	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $530	base $421	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Bishop Lndg Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1539	$4,300	$2.79	26d	1	0.21mi
238 Bishop Lndg Unit NA Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1539	$4,300	$2.79	26d	1	0.21mi
136 Bishop Lndg Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1539	$4,300	$2.79	26d	1	0.30mi
247 Streamwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	887	$3,250	$3.66	19d	1	0.33mi
40 Lakepines Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1204	$3,300	$2.74	20d	1	0.35mi
20 Lakepines Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1204	$3,300	$2.74	19d	1	0.36mi
163 Pineview Irvine, CA	1.0	1.0	934	$3,200	$3.43	12d	1	0.39mi
112 Breakwater Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1632	$4,700	$2.88	17d	1	0.42mi
112 Breakwater Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1632	$4,700	$2.88	22d	1	0.42mi
117 Henson Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1724	$5,300	$3.07	20d	1	0.43mi
33 Richmond Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1370	$4,100	$2.99	3d	1	0.44mi
101 Thornhurst Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1614	$12,000	$7.43	23d	1	0.48mi
101 Thornhurst Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1518	$14,400	$9.49	26d	1	0.48mi
82 Parkwood Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1533	$4,500	$2.94	0d	1	0.49mi
63 Darby Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1753	$5,500	$3.14	19d	1	0.51mi
88 Parkwood Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,580	$2.99	45d	1	0.52mi
103 Oasis Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$5,000	$3.02	5d	1	0.56mi
98 Devonshire Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1861	$5,100	$2.74	12d	1	0.57mi
2 Tonada Dr Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$3,900	$2.72	20d	1	0.65mi
49 Canal Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1021	$5,800	$5.68	45d	1	0.67mi
19 Fulton Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1475	$4,300	$2.92	0d	1	0.68mi
162 Overbrook Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1129	$4,200	$3.72	45d	1	0.75mi
122 Overbrook Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1129	$3,600	$3.19	45d	1	0.76mi
224 Overbrook Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1518	$4,500	$2.96	6d	1	0.77mi
100 Simplicity Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$3,575	$3.75	5d	22	0.77mi
41 Bamboo Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1600	$4,200	$2.62	26d	1	0.80mi
261 Mayfair Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1378	$4,500	$3.27	0d	1	0.84mi
50 Vintage Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1792	$4,400	$2.46	19d	1	0.84mi
49 Concierto Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1808	$4,500	$2.49	26d	1	0.84mi
49 Concierto Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1808	$4,500	$2.49	23d	1	0.84mi
234 Mayfair Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1620	$4,500	$2.78	0d	1	0.85mi
70 Kempton Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1129	$3,600	$3.19	45d	1	0.87mi
37 Spanish Lace Irvine, CA	1.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	45d	1	0.91mi
76 Great Lawn Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1154	$3,800	$3.29	6d	1	0.92mi
8 Iceberg Rose Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1170	$4,050	$3.46	45d	1	0.94mi
130 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$12,000	$6.80	0d	1	0.94mi
39 Costa Brava Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1170	$4,000	$3.42	26d	1	0.96mi
19 Potomac Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1535	$4,000	$2.61	14d	1	0.96mi
100 Piedmont Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$3,200	$4.16	0d	1	0.98mi
104 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,350	$2.47	5d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $289 · $3,468/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $430,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $479,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $479,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,268 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,148/yr (+$179/mo · 191.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,934
• − Management: −$3,934
• − HOA: −$3,468
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $5,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,631
• Household income: $146,942
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2240.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 59% White 26% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · China, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Chinese 21% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Current HPI: 499.7012
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $479,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.