12708 FM 114 · Avery, TX 75554

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy lil log home has had updates new counter tops & amp; sinks in kitchen & amp; bathrooms , new toilets , new carpet in bedrooms . Fairly new metal roof. its a little fixer upper Fully fenced pipe yard . Bar wire on outer perimeter fence with pond in pasture for watering animals mature pines big beautiful yard . Has a shed with awning & amp; power & amp; a carport .

Key facts

• New counter tops
• New toilets
• Metal roof

Tags

• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• NEW SINKS
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW CARPET
• METAL ROOF
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#807 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Avery ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #306 of 1,141 in TX (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Avery El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 152 students, 70% FRL); Avery Secondary (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 183 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,546 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $70,236
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $215,906
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75554

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,358/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $118,160

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-138	+0% $-180	+5% $-223	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-224	+0% $-180	+5% $-137	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-142	base $-180	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $150,000 Active 374-char remark
2. 1999-10-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,358 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,358
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $40,345
• Composite: 45.86/100
• National rank: #5558
• State rank: #306 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Avery

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #807
• US rank: #14695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,282

Population outlook (Red River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,454 people
• By 2030: 10,874 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 9,715 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 8,552 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,042 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 4,037 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Red River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 19.0% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.63%
• Current HPI: 181.4649
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,358 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.