282 Morris Ave · Long Branch, NJ 07740

$655,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1910 6,534 sqft lot $394/sqft · 17% below area Est $791k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own a spacious 2-family home situated on an oversized lot in one of Long Branch's most desirable locations just minutes from the Jersey Shore. This versatile property at 282 Morris Avenue offers incredible potential for investors, owner-occupants, or developers looking for future expansion possibilities. The first-floor unit features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a comfortable living room, and a full kitchen with ample space for everyday living. The second-floor unit offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, a living room, and a full kitchen, creating an excellent setup for rental income or multi-generational living. The home also includes a full unfinished basement with endles

Key facts

• 2 family home
• Walk up attic
• Oversized lot

Tags

• 2 FAMILY HOME
• OVERSIZED LOT
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• WALK UP ATTIC
• EXCEPTIONAL OUTDOOR SPACE
• POSSIBLE SUBDIVISION POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Individually owned
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Laminate flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: 2-zone heating; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $655k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $655k).
• Recommended offer: $645k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 0.3% in Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#243 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Long Branch Public School District (suburban): math 8% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #445 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,614/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 2347% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($645k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $655k implies a 2083% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $645,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $791,089
• List price: $655,000
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
399 Willow Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	4mo	$328,000	$209	70
61 Pavilion Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,704 (+2%)	6mo	$1,125,000	$660	62
153 Vanderbilt Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+6%)	4mo	$412,500	$233	57
5 Coral Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (+10%)	0mo	$785,000	$430	54
578 High St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+8%)	1mo	$760,000	$424	53
537 Winter St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-10%)	7mo	$499,000	$333	50
526 Westwood Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,764 (+6%)	0mo	$935,000	$530	48
23 Woolley Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-10%)	3mo	$575,000	$384	48
14 Slocum Pl	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	4mo	$357,000	$248	48
12 Coral Pl	0.50mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,821 (+9%)	6mo	$860,000	$472	44
146 Bath Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+14%)	7mo	$875,000	$460	44
638 Overton Pl	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,880 (+13%)	1mo	$735,000	$391	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-49,441
• Equity at exit: $97,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $47,745
• Equity at exit: $56,632

Cash invested: $183,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07740

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,435
• Tax from tax record: −$724 /mo · $8,688/yr
• Insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,389
• Net cashflow: $794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,610

Max offer price $655,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,164	-5% $979	+0% $794	+5% $608	+10% $423
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $532	+0% $794	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,316
Rate	-1.0pp $1,123	-0.5pp $960	base $794	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $163,750
• Closing costs: $19,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
179 Chelsea Ave Long Branch, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$5,300	$4.75	0d	6	0.33mi
8 Arthur Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1648	$7,000	$4.25	20d	1	0.47mi
50 Chelsea Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$6,286	$5.62	0d	36	0.59mi
350 Ocean Ave #403 Long Branch, NJ	3.0	3.0	1751	$20,000	$11.42	8d	1	0.60mi
44 Norwood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0	1226	$3,275	$2.67	14d	1	0.63mi
376 W End Ave Long Branch, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0	1720	$2,695	$1.57	0d	4	0.68mi
351 Hollywood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,300	$3.33	0d	1	0.83mi
221 Brighton Ave #201 Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	1768	$38,000	$21.49	25d	1	0.88mi
190 Spruce St #10 Long Branch, NJ	4.0	1.5	1690	$3,200	$1.89	18d	1	0.88mi
23 Hilltop Rd West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1488	$28,000	$18.82	18d	1	0.92mi
607 McClellan St Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	1344	$4,200	$3.12	0d	1	0.97mi
607 McClellan St Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1344	$25,000	$18.60	11d	1	0.97mi
132 Sampson Pl Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1570	$9,500	$6.05	25d	1	1.09mi
121 Riviera Dr Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.5	2080	$3,400	$1.63	4d	1	1.10mi
45 Cedar Ave Unit B Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.0	1788	$22,000	$12.30	5d	1	1.14mi
126 Elmwood Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	3.0	2160	$20,000	$9.26	25d	1	1.19mi
295 Jersey Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	3.0	2176	$75,000	$34.47	25d	1	1.24mi
68 Berry Pl Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1428	$3,200	$2.24	4d	1	1.25mi
81 Berry Pl Long Branch, NJ	4.0	1.5	1562	$12,000	$7.68	25d	1	1.28mi
70 Maryland Ave West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1168	$2,400	$2.05	0d	1	1.29mi
132 Chelton Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.5	1828	$3,900	$2.13	8d	1	1.30mi
17 Walnut Pl West Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1761	$4,500	$2.56	0d	1	1.34mi
329 Yorke Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	1195	$44,000	$36.82	23d	1	1.36mi
36 Community Dr West Long Branch, NJ	4.0	2.0	2202	$42,000	$19.07	23d	1	1.37mi
479 Cedar Ave West Long Branch, NJ	3.0	1.5	1413	$33,000	$23.35	23d	1	1.43mi
153 Atlantic Ave Long Branch, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,675	$2.45	8d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $655,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $655,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $655,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   listed $655,000 Active 1808-char remark
5. 1981-12-01
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,688 · $724/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,499 · $1,042/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,811/yr (+$318/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,690
• − Property taxes: −$8,688
• − Insurance: −$3,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,350
• − Management: −$6,350
• − Depreciation: −$19,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $9,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long Branch Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408940
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,405
• Composite: 15.49/100
• National rank: #9307
• State rank: #445 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Long Branch

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #6700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Branch, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 32,917
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 32,917
• Household income: $79,870
• Rent vs Own: 57.4% rent · 42.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2347.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 10% Russian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -655.16%
• Current HPI: 405.7286
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+2083.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $655,000 MOMLS
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,688 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.