3049 Beaver Pond Trl · Valrico, FL 33596

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1998 6,669 sqft lot $99/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly desirable Twin Lakes community! This well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a spacious and functional layout designed for comfortable family living. As you step through the front door, you're greeted by a bright and inviting living and dining area, perfect for gatherings. The kitchen features a convenient center island, providing additional counter space, along with a casual dining area. The split-bedroom floor plan allows privacy for the primary suite while providing flexibility for guest rooms, a home office or hobby space. The primary bedroom is filled with natural light and features an en-suite bathroom complete with a relaxing garden tub and seperate sh

Key facts

• 6,669 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name listed; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly approx. $99.67; quarterly association fee $299); HOA covers common area taxes and pool; Community amenities: pool, playground, park, tennis courts; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Deed-restricted community; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Homesteaded property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of about 0.15 acre
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 57 x 117

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Den/Library/Office; Florida room; Irrigation system; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-233/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lithia Springs Elementary School (math 74% / reading 78%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 620 students, 22% FRL); Randall Middle School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A+, #25 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,409 students, 16% FRL); Bloomingdale High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 2,304 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $385k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,226 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-60,300
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-40,167
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33596

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,586/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,157

Max offer price $381,576

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $90	+0% $-19	+5% $-128	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-143	+0% $-19	+5% $104	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $79	base $-19	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5656 Rockfield Loop Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$3,000	$1.66	26d	1	0.78mi
4318 Brooke Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,486	$1.34	26d	1	1.25mi
4351 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	3.0	2448	$2,615	$1.07	0d	1	1.29mi
5121 Fairway One Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	2241	$3,500	$1.56	16d	1	1.31mi
4434 Brandon Ridge Dr Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	2005	$2,581	$1.29	6d	1	1.35mi
1707 Tallowtree Cir Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,220	$1.37	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $385,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,586 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$2,586
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,007
• − Management: −$3,007
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$6,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,654
• After-tax cash flow: $1,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.33%
• Current HPI: 301.312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,586 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.