122 Rambling Ln · Lake Meredith Estates, TX 79036

$97,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Townhouse · 154 Days on market

Built 2004 Fair condition $60/sqft · 41% below area Est $165k · 41% under $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you want to get away from it all, come to this perfect retreat just minutes from the lake. This house sits on 6 lots in Lake Meredith Harbor-just a short distance from the boat ramp-and tucked away on a quiet street. This home has it all; three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a laundry room, and a spacious master bathroom with huge soaker tub. The living room has a great fireplace, and the kitchen is big enough for entertaining. If you have been looking for a retreat, this is your perfect spot!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Huge soaker tub
• Built 2004

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• SHORT DISTANCE FROM BOAT RAMP
• SPACIOUS MASTER BATHROOM
• HUGE SOAKER TUB
• BIG KITCHEN FOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#996 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanford-Fritch ISD (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $677 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.88%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,746
• List price: $97,900
• Delta: -40.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $4
• Equity at exit: $14,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $20,521
• Equity at exit: $8,465

Cash invested: $27,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79036

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$513
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $883

Max offer price $97,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $282	+0% $249	+5% $215	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $201	+0% $249	+5% $296	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $274	base $249	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,475
• Closing costs: $2,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,900 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $97,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    If you want to get away from it all, come to this perfect retreat just minutes from the lake. This house sits on 6 lots in Lake Meredith Harbor-just a short distance from the boat ramp-and tucked away on a quiet street. This home has it all; three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a laundry room, and a spacious master bathroom with huge soaker tub. The living room has a great fireplace, and the kitchen is big enough for entertaining. If you have been looking for a retreat, this is your perfect spot!

18. 2026-04-21
    price $98,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    If you want to get away from it all, come to this perfect retreat just minutes from the lake. This house sits on 6 lots in Lake Meredith Harbor-just a short distance from the boat ramp-and tucked away on a quiet street. This home has it all; three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a laundry room, and a spacious master bathroom with huge soaker tub. The living room has a great fireplace, and the kitchen is big enough for entertaining. If you have been looking for a retreat, this is your perfect spot!

19. 2026-01-22
    price $99,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    If you want to get away from it all, come to this perfect retreat just minutes from the lake. This house sits on 6 lots in Lake Meredith Harbor-just a short distance from the boat ramp-and tucked away on a quiet street. This home has it all; three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a laundry room, and a spacious master bathroom with huge soaker tub. The living room has a great fireplace, and the kitchen is big enough for entertaining. If you have been looking for a retreat, this is your perfect spot!

20. 2026-01-17
    listed $104,900 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    If you want to get away from it all, come to this perfect retreat just minutes from the lake. This house sits on 6 lots in Lake Meredith Harbor-just a short distance from the boat ramp-and tucked away on a quiet street. This home has it all; three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a laundry room, and a spacious master bathroom with huge soaker tub. The living room has a great fireplace, and the kitchen is big enough for entertaining. If you have been looking for a retreat, this is your perfect spot!

21. 2025-10-06
    price $104,900
22. 2025-08-27
    price $114,900
23. 2025-06-26
    price $120,000
24. 2025-05-31
    price $130,000
25. 2021-11-09
    soldstatus
26. 2021-04-07
    soldstatus
27. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,484
• − Property taxes: −$1,468
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$2,848
• Taxable income: $1,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$368
• After-tax cash flow: $2,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This townhouse requires moderate renovations, including painting, landscaping, and replacing the deck and windows. These updates will significantly improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major paint — Peeling and chipping
• Major deck — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major windows — Older and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both new windows — Modern windows can improve energy efficiency and property value
• Both deck replacement — A new deck can increase the usable outdoor space and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
deck · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Older and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both new windows — Modern windows can improve energy efficiency and property value ↑
• Both deck replacement — A new deck can increase the usable outdoor space and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanford-Fritch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,570
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5314
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Meredith Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #17712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Meredith Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,957

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.35%
• Current HPI: 148.285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $97,900 AARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $98,900 AARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $99,900 AARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $104,900 AARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $104,900 AARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $114,900 AARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $120,000 AARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $130,000 AARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+33.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $77 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.