65 Ryder Farm Ln · Orient, NY 11957

$1,385,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 1920 0.83 ac lot $687/sqft · 9% below area Est $1528k · 9% under $17/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom renovated 1920's Long Island Potato Barn, set on .83 acres in Orient. Large foyer with 2 closets. Expansive open concept living/dining/kitchen with wood burning fireplace and sliding doors leading to the brick patio and garden. Master ensuite bedroom with full bath with tub & stall shower, 2 additional bedrooms, full bath, and laundry room. Spacious full basement with high ceilings that was formerly used as a workshop. Exceptional privacy with mature landscaping, heated in-ground pool, brick patio for entertaining, 2 accessory outbuildings. Association Sound Beach rights. Proximity to Orient State Park, Orient Village amenities and marinas. 24 hr. notice for showings.

Key facts

• 0.83 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31k ($374k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($50k rent vs $1.39M).
• Recommended offer: $1.34M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $138k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $388k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$238k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.34M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $589k; list at $1.39M implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,343,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.34%
• DSCR: 5.29
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,528,362
• List price: $1,385,000
• Delta: -9.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Uhl Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+4%)	1mo	$770,000	$367	76
1250 N Sea Dr	0.35mi	3/3.5	1,800 (-11%)	20mo	$1,075,000	$597	43
1405 Terry Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,200 (+9%)	16mo	$2,825,000	$1,284	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $2,737,282
• Equity at exit: $1,247,718

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.77×
• Total profit: $6,501,484
• Equity at exit: $2,690,750

Cash invested: $387,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $50,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,263
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,102/yr
• Insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,500
• Net cashflow: $31,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,589

Max offer price $1,385,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31,918	-5% $31,526	+0% $31,134	+5% $30,742	+10% $30,350
Rent	-10% $27,184	-5% $29,159	+0% $31,134	+5% $33,109	+10% $35,084
Rate	-1.0pp $31,832	-0.5pp $31,487	base $31,134	+0.5pp $30,775	+1.0pp $30,410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $346,250
• Closing costs: $41,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Plum Island Ln Orient, NY	4.0	4.5	2600	$50,000	$19.23	44d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-04-18
    listed $1,385,000 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Custom renovated 1920's Long Island Potato Barn, set on .83 acres in Orient. Large foyer with 2 closets. Expansive open concept living/dining/kitchen with wood burning fireplace and sliding doors leading to the brick patio and garden. Master ensuite bedroom with full bath with tub & stall shower, 2 additional bedrooms, full bath, and laundry room. Spacious full basement with high ceilings that was formerly used as a workshop. Exceptional privacy with mature landscaping, heated in-ground pool, brick patio for entertaining, 2 accessory outbuildings. Association Sound Beach rights. Proximity to Orient State Park, Orient Village amenities and marinas. 24 hr. notice for showings.

13. 2026-04-06
    historical $1,385,000 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Custom renovated 1920's Long Island Potato Barn, set on .83 acres in Orient. Large foyer with 2 closets. Expansive open concept living/dining/kitchen with wood burning fireplace and sliding doors leading to the brick patio and garden. Master ensuite bedroom with full bath with tub & stall shower, 2 additional bedrooms, full bath, and laundry room. Spacious full basement with high ceilings that was formerly used as a workshop. Exceptional privacy with mature landscaping, heated in-ground pool, brick patio for entertaining, 2 accessory outbuildings. Association Sound Beach rights. Proximity to Orient State Park, Orient Village amenities and marinas. 24 hr. notice for showings.

14. 2014-06-05
    soldstatus $589,000
15. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $589,000 Closed 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautifully Restored 1920'S Potato Barn, Part Of The Original Ryder Farm. Contemporary, Open Common Space, With Large Glass Doors & Cupola For Exceptional Natural Light. Grounds Have Been Meticulously Landscaped With Flower Beds & Mature Fruit Trees. Large Basement With High Ceilings Set Up As Workshop/Studio.

16. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $589,000

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautifully Restored 1920'S Potato Barn, Part Of The Original Ryder Farm. Contemporary, Open Common Space, With Large Glass Doors & Cupola For Exceptional Natural Light. Grounds Have Been Meticulously Landscaped With Flower Beds & Mature Fruit Trees. Large Basement With High Ceilings Set Up As Workshop/Studio.

17. 2014-04-14
    status Under Contract 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautifully Restored 1920'S Potato Barn, Part Of The Original Ryder Farm. Contemporary, Open Common Space, With Large Glass Doors & Cupola For Exceptional Natural Light. Grounds Have Been Meticulously Landscaped With Flower Beds & Mature Fruit Trees. Large Basement With High Ceilings Set Up As Workshop/Studio.

18. 2014-01-08
    listed $579,000 New 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautifully Restored 1920'S Potato Barn, Part Of The Original Ryder Farm. Contemporary, Open Common Space, With Large Glass Doors & Cupola For Exceptional Natural Light. Grounds Have Been Meticulously Landscaped With Flower Beds & Mature Fruit Trees. Large Basement With High Ceilings Set Up As Workshop/Studio.

19. 2014-01-08
    listed $579,000

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Beautifully Restored 1920'S Potato Barn, Part Of The Original Ryder Farm. Contemporary, Open Common Space, With Large Glass Doors & Cupola For Exceptional Natural Light. Grounds Have Been Meticulously Landscaped With Flower Beds & Mature Fruit Trees. Large Basement With High Ceilings Set Up As Workshop/Studio.

20. 2013-05-07
    historical
21. 2013-04-25
    listed $1,175,000
22. 2013-04-22
    historical
23. 2012-08-26
    listed $1,190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,102 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,754 · $1,230/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,652/yr (+$721/mo · 141.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $600,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,582
• − Property taxes: −$6,102
• − Insurance: −$6,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$48,000
• − Management: −$48,000
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$40,291
• Taxable income: $372,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89,495
• After-tax cash flow: $284,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $1,385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $1,385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $589,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $589,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $589,000 MLSLI
• 2014-04-14 Pending — MLSLI
• 2014-01-08 Listed $579,000 MLSLI
• 2014-01-08 Listed $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-25 Listed $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-26 Listed $1,190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,102 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.