26902 Springflight Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$250,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2011 8,158 sqft lot Est $424k · 41% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 5-bedroom, 2.5 bath home sits just minutes from the Cypress Outlet Mall, entertainment, and local eateries. Enjoy the quiet charm of Hockley with the convenience of nearby Cypress. Located on an oversized cul-de-sac lot, it features a huge backyard and walk-in closets in every bedroom. The primary suite is on the first floor for added privacy, with all secondary bedrooms and a spacious game room upstairs!! Recent updates include the roof, water heater, furnace, and fresh paint. A stainless steel refrigerator is included, the home is truly move-in ready.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Huge backyard
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• PRIMARY SUITE ON FIRST FLOOR
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• RECENT UPDATES
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (8.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,078 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,053
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26902 Springflight Ln	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,667 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$94	100
16215 Mallard View Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,650 (-1%)	1mo	$419,841	$158	78
27119 Mound Hill Cir	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	1mo	$446,207	$159	75
27103 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.16mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	1mo	$444,557	$159	74
27111 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.18mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	1mo	$446,766	$160	73
27122 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.21mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	1mo	$424,509	$152	72
27203 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	2mo	$436,733	$156	70
16207 Mallard View Ln	0.28mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,800 (+5%)	0mo	$439,881	$157	70
27234 Wheat Falls Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (-10%)	2mo	$378,990	$157	65
27327 Prairie Rush Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-5%)	1mo	$424,900	$168	58
27410 Rolling Bluestem Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,476 (-7%)	2mo	$424,900	$172	53
16535 Harmony Lea Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,399 (-10%)	1mo	$483,490	$202	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-55,883
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-87,634
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$792 /mo · $9,499/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $228,078

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26207 Glee Meadow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.5	3498	$2,995	$0.86	1d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-13
   price $250,000
4. 2025-12-11
   price $269,900
5. 2025-11-16
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2025-11-16
   historical
7. 2025-11-04
   price $285,000
8. 2025-10-24
   price $295,000
9. 2025-10-15
   historical
10. 2025-10-15
    listed $309,500 Active
11. 2025-08-25
    price $309,500
12. 2025-07-25
    listed $319,500 Active
13. 2023-06-08
    soldstatus
14. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2023-05-14
    status Pending
16. 2023-05-09
    status Option Pending
17. 2023-03-28
    price $299,900
18. 2023-02-04
    listed $304,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,499 · $792/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,499 · $792/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$9,499
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $309,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $309,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $319,500 HARMLS
• 2023-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2023-02-04 Listed $304,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,499 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.