5032 Skinner Hill Rd · Moravia, NY 13118

$305,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1900 3.99 ac lot $137/sqft · 26% above area Est $243k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

Key facts

• Koi pond
• Renovated bathrooms
• Sleek sink

Tags

• KOI POND
• RUBBER ROOF
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• SLEEK SINK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Rectangular rural lot (approx. 3.99 acres, dimensions 416 x 414)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total, including 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Workshop; Has partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-106/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#357 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Moravia Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #391 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millard Fillmore Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 387 students, 51% FRL); Moravia Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 476 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $305k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $256,975 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,935
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: 25.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Church St	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,184 (-2%)	7mo	$215,000	$98	78
25 Smith St	0.47mi	4/1.0	2,214 (-0%)	8mo	$165,000	$75	66
17 Church St	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,368 (+7%)	23mo	$249,900	$106	44
59 S Main St	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,548 (+15%)	8mo	$285,000	$112	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $165,545
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $487,938
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13118

• Home prices YoY: 29.3%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,749/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $303,440

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $77	+0% $-9	+5% $-95	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-110	+0% $-9	+5% $93	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $69	base $-9	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $305,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $305,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $305,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $312,400 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $312,400 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $312,400 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,400 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,400 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,400 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $312,400 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $312,400 834-char remark
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $319,900 Active 834-char remark
20. 2017-01-05
    soldstatus $30,499 Closed Sale or Rented 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

21. 2016-12-03
    status Pending Sale 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

22. 2016-11-29
    price $34,900 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

23. 2016-11-12
    status Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

24. 2016-11-10
    status Pending Sale 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

25. 2016-10-05
    price $39,900 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

26. 2016-10-05
    listed $399,900 Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    This property has a finished first floor and unfinished second floor. The second floor has been gutted to the studs and is ready to be remodeled. Bring your cash investors. Attractive 4 acre homesite.

27. 2008-08-08
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,749 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,452 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$3,749
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moravia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619800
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,991
• Composite: 42.47/100
• National rank: #3215
• State rank: #391 of 590 in NY

Livability — Moravia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #6025

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,514

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 82.97%
• Current HPI: 366.5746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+283.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $305,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $312,400 CNYIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $319,900 CNYIS
• 2017-01-05 Sold (MLS) $30,499 CNYIS
• 2016-12-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2016-11-29 Price Changed $34,900 CNYIS
• 2016-11-12 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2016-11-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2016-10-05 Price Changed $39,900 CNYIS
• 2016-10-05 Listed $399,900 CNYIS
• 2008-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,749 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.