17455 Marygold Ave #5 · Fontana, CA 92316

$79,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $101k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully renovated mobile home located a desirable 55+ senior community. This charming home features 1 bedroom with 1 bathroom with numerous upgrades throughout, including new carpet, laminate flooring, new windows, a new tankless water heater, and mini-split system to keep you comfortable during hot summers and cold winters. The home has also been freshy painted inside and out, and the deck has been completely redone. Appliance include are washer and dryer, stove/oven and refrigerator. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse and small dog park. Conveniently located near the 10 freeway and blocks away from the Fontana Kaiser Hospital. This is a must-see!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1968
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Bird of Paradise MHE; Breed restrictions for pets
• Financial info: Land lease of $999 annually; Rent includes: none
• HOA & community: Senior community; Dog park on site

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Parking available in the community (Bird of Paradise MHE)
• Security: Manager approval required for residency
• Utilities: Public/district water; Septic (type unknown); Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Fleetwood model); Entry at ground level; Mobile home remains on site; 12' x 56' mobile
• Construction: Year built: other (source: other)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Park nearby

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Cooling available (see remarks)
• Interior features: Awning
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,799 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.34%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,088
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17333 Valley Blvd Unit 140E	0.33mi	2/1.0	720 (+11%)	8mo	$58,000	$81	60
17225 Valley Blvd Unit 58W	0.49mi	2/1.0	660 (+2%)	18mo	$103,000	$156	59
17225 Valley Blvd Unit 17F	0.44mi	2/1.0	720 (+11%)	17mo	$120,000	$167	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $38,590
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $100,059
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92316

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17237 Deodar Ave Unit Adu Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$1,800	$4.00	43d	1	0.39mi
16982 San Bernardino Ave Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	586	$1,700	$2.90	43d	1	0.64mi
8998 Mango Ave Unit I Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	692	$1,650	$2.38	21d	1	1.24mi
8919 Mango Ave Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,650	$3.30	14d	2	1.29mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,999 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    historical $79,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $8,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,152
• After-tax cash flow: $7,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colton Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,178
• Composite: 23.74/100
• National rank: #7820
• State rank: #373 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fontana

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #14177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fontana, CA
• City population: 203,028
• Population (ZIP): 31,909

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% White 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 64% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.05%
• Current HPI: 483.5611
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Coming Soon $79,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2015): $24 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.