1425 Highway 441 · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1985 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This brick ranch style home has 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, living room, eat-in kitchen that extends to dining area, range, refrigerator, new dishwasher, washer and dryer stay with home; double pane windows; 1 car attached garage with pull down ladder to access attic partially floored for storage; yard is partially fenced with chain link fence for pets, nice yard; the septic system was replaced and upgraded in 2015; new metal roof in 2015, heat pump and air unit replaced in 2017, outside unit of heat pump unit was replaced in 2023 with warranty, in 2017 hot water heater was upgraded from 30 gallon to a 50 gallon water heater. In 2026 seller completely had home remodeled and spent $30,000 by

Key facts

• Double pane windows
• Eat-in kitchen
• New dishwasher

Tags

• BRICK RANCH STYLE HOME
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW DISHWASHER
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• SEPTIC SYSTEM REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available: Wilderness Rd to 25E to 441
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Garage door opener; Off-street parking
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Building area reported by owner
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick; Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Built area approximately 1,242 (reported by owner)
• Exterior features: Level and rolling slope lot; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Electric heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,789 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Fourmile Run Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	934 (+2%)	3mo	$97,000	$104	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,798
• Equity at exit: $79,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $60,670
• Equity at exit: $127,624

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $136,376

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-115	+0% $-162	+5% $-209	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-204	+0% $-162	+5% $-120	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-120	base $-162	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2022-08-02
    historical
18. 2022-04-27
    price $139,900
19. 2022-01-19
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bell County
• NCES district ID: 2100390
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $27,032
• Composite: 26.86/100
• National rank: #7102
• State rank: #91 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+10.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $165,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-08-02 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-04-27 Price Changed $139,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-01-19 Listed $149,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.