27472 Meadow Dr · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92326

$485,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,313 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1949 7,950 sqft lot $210/sqft · 29% below area Est $681k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming mountain retreat nestled among the trees in desirable Crest Park! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 2,300 sq ft of living space, featuring cozy fireplaces, warm wood accents, and peaceful forest views throughout. Enjoy a private setting with room to relax or entertain, just minutes from Lake Arrowhead Village, dining, and shops. Perfect as a full-time home, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity experience the best of mountain living!

Key facts

• Mountain retreat
• Cozy fireplaces
• Wood accents

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• COZY FIREPLACES
• WOOD ACCENTS
• FOREST VIEWS
• PRIVATE SETTING
• LAKE ARROWHEAD VILLAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One covered garage space; One total parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cabin-style structure; Two stories; Entry on first level; Mountainous community
• Construction: Shingle roof; No ADU; No common walls; Year built from assessor data
• Exterior features: Patio; Front yard; Back yard; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Two levels; Front entry; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry located on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $371k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lake Arrowhead Elementary (421 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,988 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $680,784
• List price: $485,000
• Delta: -28.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 Crest Ests	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,056 (-11%)	1mo	$602,999	$293	46
523 Dogwood Canyon Rd	0.57mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-10%)	6mo	$825,000	$397	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $33,627
• Equity at exit: $218,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $154,641
• Equity at exit: $336,083

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92326

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$575 /mo · $6,903/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,203

Max offer price $416,116

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-253	+0% $-390	+5% $-527	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-683	-5% $-536	+0% $-390	+5% $-243	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-267	base $-390	+0.5pp $-516	+1.0pp $-643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Cottage Grove Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$5,700	$2.28	45d	1	0.88mi
641 Virginia Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,300	$1.14	45d	1	1.05mi
29591 Sugar Cone Ln Twin Peaks, CA	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	45d	1	1.09mi
233 Corona Cir Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,900	$1.42	45d	1	1.12mi
27313 Pinewood Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	2.5	2746	$4,500	$1.64	26d	1	1.20mi
353 Mittry Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	3.0	2771	$4,500	$1.62	1d	1	1.25mi
359 Kuffel Canyon Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,999	$1.74	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $485,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $485,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $485,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $485,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $485,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $485,000 Active 466-char remark
17. 2026-02-02
    price
18. 2025-09-22
    listed Active
19. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus $492,000
20. 2020-09-16
    soldstatus $315,000
21. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus $193,000
22. 1980-12-18
    soldstatus $24,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,903 · $575/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,903 · $575/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$6,903
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,561
• − Management: −$3,561
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$13,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1863.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $485,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed — TheMLS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $492,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $24,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,903 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.