3038 Silver Spur Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$259,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1996 6,621 sqft lot Est $300k · 13% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs repairs, selling as-is. Spacious with an open floor plan, this home has a covered patio area, extra bonus room, and is situated on a large cul-de-sac lot. Schedule an appointment to view this one today! * * Property has not flooded * *

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Convenient access

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OVERSIZED COVERED PATIO
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure included; Seller disclosure included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Sundown Glen / Inframark LLC; Annual association fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Laminate counters; Kitchen/family room and kitchen/dining combos
• Bedrooms: Space for up to 5 bedrooms; 6 total rooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom includes jetted tub and double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Jetted tub; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Low emissivity windows; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ursula Stephens El (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 618 students, 80% FRL); Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 27% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,991 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20322 Eagle Nest Fls	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (+2%)	2mo	$305,000	$137	81
3102 Silver Cedar Trl	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,312 (+6%)	3mo	$299,000	$129	70
3139 Redgum Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,060 (-5%)	1mo	$350,000	$170	68
19947 Ashland Brook Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,062 (-5%)	2mo	$285,000	$138	67
20014 Rolling Hills Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,914 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$138	61
3103 Hartcliff Cir	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,055 (-6%)	4mo	$290,000	$141	60
19631 Oakwood Falls Trl	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,269 (+4%)	1mo	$304,999	$134	59
3610 Windlewood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,190 (+1%)	3mo	$279,999	$128	56
19915 Brandon Oaks Way	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,400 (+10%)	0mo	$315,000	$131	50
3207 Rainhill Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-13%)	1mo	$280,000	$148	44
2830 Hazy Creek Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,479 (+14%)	2mo	$360,000	$145	41
3206 Tynemeadow Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-14%)	4mo	$275,000	$147	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,719
• Equity at exit: $59,397

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-70,748
• Equity at exit: $59,549

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$626 /mo · $7,517/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,704

Max offer price $211,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-198	+0% $-272	+5% $-345	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-365	+0% $-272	+5% $-179	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-206	base $-272	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	5d	1	0.11mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	45d	1	0.18mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	45d	1	0.38mi
3310 Rainport Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,416	$1.22	1d	1	0.50mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	7d	1	0.70mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	26d	1	0.72mi
19810 Hoppers Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2400	$1,956	$0.81	24d	1	0.85mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	19d	1	0.86mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	21d	1	0.87mi
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	0.92mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	7d	1	0.94mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	45d	1	1.00mi
19330 Harvest Stream Way Houston, TX	5.0	3.0	2656	$2,200	$0.83	1d	1	1.07mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	26d	1	1.10mi
20114 Fort Stanton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2533	$1,951	$0.77	45d	1	1.10mi
20911 Hazy Bluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2940	$2,450	$0.83	45d	1	1.14mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,841	$1.07	1d	1	1.14mi
2723 Durham Chase Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2765	$2,275	$0.82	4d	1	1.27mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	7d	1	1.27mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	45d	1	1.29mi
20926 Hamlet Ridge Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,195	$0.89	26d	1	1.38mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	7d	1	1.38mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	26d	1	1.38mi
1806 Usher Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2568	$2,350	$0.92	22d	1	1.45mi
20722 Iron Timber Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2785	$2,600	$0.93	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,999 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,999 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,999 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,999 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,999 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,999 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,999 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,999 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,999 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,999 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $259,999 Active
16. 2019-12-13
    soldstatus
17. 2019-12-09
    soldstatus Sold 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Needs repairs, selling as-is. Spacious with an open floor plan, this home has a covered patio area, extra bonus room, and is situated on a large cul-de-sac lot. Schedule an appointment to view this one today! * * Property has not flooded * *

18. 2019-11-22
    status Pending 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Needs repairs, selling as-is. Spacious with an open floor plan, this home has a covered patio area, extra bonus room, and is situated on a large cul-de-sac lot. Schedule an appointment to view this one today! * * Property has not flooded * *

19. 2019-11-13
    status Pending, Continue to Show 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Needs repairs, selling as-is. Spacious with an open floor plan, this home has a covered patio area, extra bonus room, and is situated on a large cul-de-sac lot. Schedule an appointment to view this one today! * * Property has not flooded * *

20. 2019-10-25
    listed $179,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Needs repairs, selling as-is. Spacious with an open floor plan, this home has a covered patio area, extra bonus room, and is situated on a large cul-de-sac lot. Schedule an appointment to view this one today! * * Property has not flooded * *

21. 2019-10-09
    soldstatus
22. 1997-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,517 · $626/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,517 · $626/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$7,517
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,827
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2019-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-11-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-25 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,517 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.