14955 Adamsville Rd · Federalsburg, MD 19950

$85,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1985 0.90 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a private lot already serviced by well and septic. The existing manufactured home will require major renovation and offers potential for buyers looking for a project, investment opportunity, or a place to start fresh. Property is being sold strictly as-is and the seller will not make repairs. Buyer responsible for completing all due diligence regarding the condition of the home, well, septic, and any intended use of the property. Personal property currently in the home will remain and will convey with the sale. Bring your ideas and explore the possibilities this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Private lot
• Manufactured home

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• MANUFACTURED HOME
• MAJOR RENOVATION
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• AS-IS SALE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.8% in Federalsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Woodbridge School District (rural): math 17% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 26 in DE (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $85k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.82%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,377
• Equity at exit: $14,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $108,305
• Equity at exit: $11,200

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19950

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $897	-5% $873	+0% $849	+5% $825	+10% $801
Rent	-10% $712	-5% $781	+0% $849	+5% $918	+10% $986
Rate	-1.0pp $892	-0.5pp $871	base $849	+0.5pp $827	+1.0pp $805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus Closed
3. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-11
   listed $85,000 Active
5. 2016-05-31
   soldstatus $49,500
6. 2015-06-12
   historical
7. 2013-09-20
   listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 43.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,243
• After-tax cash flow: $7,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodbridge School District
• NCES district ID: 1001850
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,711
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8137
• State rank: #21 of 26 in DE

Livability — Federalsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #13461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,822

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Hispanic 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.42%
• Current HPI: 284.3
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+13.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Sold (MLS) — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2015-06-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-20 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $494 · -7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.