108 Linlyco Lake Rd · Little Valley, NY 14719

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2004 0.74 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This waterfront cabin is on Linlyco Lake located in Cattaraugus NY, Cattaraugus County. Have you been dreaming of a waterfront property?  Here it is with the ability to put your own finishing touches on it.   This 672 sq. ft. cabin has been completely gutted and rebuilt just in time for the new owner to cosmetically finish it.   Walk into an open living room-kitchen combo with a fully remodeled bathroom.   Upstairs is a large sleeping area.   The property includes septic, well and electric that are connected.   Linlyco Lake Road is a secluded area that has one way in and one way out for great privacy and very low traffic.  Great getaway location to enjoy t

Key facts

• Secluded area
• Remodeled bathroom
• Waterfront cabin

Tags

• WATERFRONT CABIN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• SECLUDED AREA
• GREAT GETAWAY LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $72k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $72k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,121 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $44,468
• Equity at exit: $89,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $138,974
• Equity at exit: $194,084

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14719

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,220/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $72,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-129	+0% $-157	+5% $-186	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-189	+0% $-157	+5% $-125	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-132	base $-157	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2025-10-14
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-10
   historical
5. 2025-08-27
   price $109,900
6. 2025-08-06
   price $124,900
7. 2025-07-08
   listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$20/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,220
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$3,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$869
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600024
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,623
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4159
• State rank: #460 of 590 in NY

Livability — Little Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #821
• US rank: #15872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.94%
• Current HPI: 331.9433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $109,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $124,900 CNYIS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $134,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,220 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.