7676 E Nonchalant Ave · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,250,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1989 1.55 ac lot Est $906k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

PREAPPROVED WELLS FARGO SHORT SALE. ONE LOAN ONLY! Family home featuring four bedrooms, three bathrooms, spa and pool. Great room has tall ceiling, large windows to capture the views, banco and corner fireplace. Master bedroom features corner fireplace, banco and exterior access to spa and pool. Master bath features dual undermount sinks, granite, brushed nickel fixtures, separate shower and tub with beautiful tile work. Fourth bedroom is on opposite side of home and has exterior access. Backyard oasis features spa, pool with waterfall and tanning shelf, built in BBQ and large covered patio. Outstanding VIEWS of the Continentals and Elephant Butte. Owner says SELL!!

Key facts

• 1.55 acre lot
• 5 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Over-height garage; Extended-length garage; Five covered/garage spaces; Garage door opener; Direct access; Detached RV garage; Circular driveway; Separate storage area
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water and private water company; Propane; Septic system (septic in & connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Panoramic and mountain views
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Built-up and foam roof
• Exterior features: Private pool with variable speed pump and play area; Private spa; Private yard; Built-in barbecue; Outdoor storage; Block fencing; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timer; Natural desert front and back; Adjacent to wash; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Built-in recycling; Reverse osmosis; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Stone; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in master; Master bedroom on main level; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Pantry; Full master bathroom; Separate shower and tub; Skylights; Dual-pane windows; Fireplaces in living room and master (gas); Zero-grade entry; Hard/low nap floors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.02M (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $895k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $895k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $85k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $77k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$136k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.25M implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $895,369 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $905,690
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7451 E Long Rifle Rd	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,075 (-6%)	15mo	$1,425,000	$687	54
36833 N Long Rifle Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,435 (+10%)	7mo	$1,225,000	$503	48
1305 Coyote Pass	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,236 (+1%)	9mo	$840,000	$376	47
1103 Ocotillo Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,485 (+12%)	1mo	$860,000	$346	41
7957 E Cave Creek Rd	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,496 (+13%)	16mo	$1,475,000	$591	41
7829 E Carefree Estates Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,506 (+13%)	5mo	$750,000	$299	38
36830 N Long Rifle Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,503 (+13%)	18mo	$1,025,000	$410	37
7830 E Carefree Estates Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,520 (+14%)	15mo	$810,000	$321	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $271,112
• Equity at exit: $796,177

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $873,239
• Equity at exit: $1,452,868

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,562 /mo · $18,750/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,880
• Net cashflow: $-1,565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,935

Max offer price $1,023,534

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.56mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.56mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	43d	1	0.63mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	0.65mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	43d	1	0.84mi
1613 N Quartz Valley Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2831	$12,000	$4.24	43d	1	1.02mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	43d	1	1.19mi
9165 E Sunflower Ct Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1631	$11,500	$7.05	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $1,250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $107,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$18,750
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,596
• − Management: −$8,596
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable loss: −$41,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $1,250,000 ARMLS
• 2013-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-04 Sold (MLS) $350,000 ARMLS
• 2012-12-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2012-12-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-12-02 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2012-11-16 Price Changed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2012-11-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-09-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2012-09-01 Price Changed $399,500 ARMLS
• 2012-06-30 Listed $485,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-23 Sold (MLS) $434,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-28 Listed $459,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,308 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.