503 Evans Ave · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$429,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2021 5,230 sqft lot Est $423k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your home search is over! Step into this beautifully updated, well cared for home. Just move in and enjoy! Updated features include custom blinds thru out for light and privacy. Designer backsplash on kitchen wall ads an extra bit of design, ceiling fans thru out for fresh air and an electronic front door lock for convenience and security. Enjoy 3 generous sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms (including a larger soaking tub in primary bath), a nice size laundry room and a comfortable great room to enjoy good food, great conversation and entertainment. Kitchen features a spacious walk-in pantry, all kitchen appliances including refrigerator with water and ice dispenser and an island for those casual meals and conversation. The yard has both front and back sprinklers and an inviting back patio and back yard to enjoy those beautiful spring, summer and fall days and nights. Remote workers really enjoy this area for the value, space from the hustle bustle of the big city and the small town charm of this community. There is also easy access to major highways for those who don't work at home. A short drive to the Wild Animal Sanctuary, Hudson, Greeley, Loveland, Windsor and Ft. Collins and Denver.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Ceiling fans
• Designer backsplash

Tags

• CUSTOM BLINDS
• DESIGNER BACKSPLASH
• CEILING FANS
• ELECTRONIC FRONT DOOR LOCK
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Evans Place HOA); Professionally managed; Association fee $40 monthly ($480 annually)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Total parking for 2 vehicles; Asphalt driveway; Garage is drywalled and lighted
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (110V and 220V); Natural gas connected; Cable available; Wired internet access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; South-facing; Live/work current use; Individual ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Full fencing; Landscaped yard; Front and rear sprinklers; Paved public road frontage; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Range hood; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Water softener; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Basement: Crawl space
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Five-piece bathroom; Granite counters; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; No stairs (single-level); Open floor plan; Pantry; Primary suite; Smoke-free; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $404k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.8% in Keenesburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoff Elementary School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #747 of 966 statewide, top 80%, 319 students, 42% FRL); Weld Central Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 525 students, 53% FRL); Weld Central Senior High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 697 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,067 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $422,862
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Porter Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,639 (0%)	6mo	$394,900	$241	88
307 Thomas Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,639 (0%)	3mo	$378,500	$231	84
402 Quincy Rr Ave	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,751 (+7%)	0mo	$420,000	$240	77
507 Porter Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-10%)	6mo	$386,000	$262	73
310 Evans Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-10%)	2mo	$379,900	$258	67
310 Quincy Rr Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-10%)	4mo	$399,000	$271	65
215 N Stewart St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-10%)	5mo	$384,900	$261	62
201 N Stewart St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-10%)	4mo	$400,000	$272	61
505 E Woodward Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,808 (+10%)	0mo	$345,000	$191	57
325 Thomas Ave	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,819 (+11%)	5mo	$425,900	$234	57
207 Clayton Ave	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,819 (+11%)	2mo	$321,100	$177	56
315 S Lambert St	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,482 (-10%)	6mo	$404,100	$273	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-41,274
• Equity at exit: $64,113

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $416
• Equity at exit: $37,178

Cash invested: $120,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,250/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$849
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,475

Max offer price $429,990

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,498
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,990 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,990 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,990 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $429,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,990 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,990 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $429,990 Active 1222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1222 chars)

    Your home search is over! Step into this beautifully updated, well cared for home. Just move in and enjoy! Updated features include custom blinds thru out for light and privacy. Designer backsplash on kitchen wall ads an extra bit of design, ceiling fans thru out for fresh air and an electronic front door lock for convenience and security. Enjoy 3 generous sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms (including a larger soaking tub in primary bath), a nice size laundry room and a comfortable great room to enjoy good food, great conversation and entertainment. Kitchen features a spacious walk-in pantry, all kitchen appliances including refrigerator with water and ice dispenser and an island for those casual meals and conversation. The yard has both front and back sprinklers and an inviting back patio and back yard to enjoy those beautiful spring, summer and fall days and nights. Remote workers really enjoy this area for the value, space from the hustle bustle of the big city and the small town charm of this community. There is also easy access to major highways for those who don't work at home. A short drive to the Wild Animal Sanctuary, Hudson, Greeley, Loveland, Windsor and Ft. Collins and Denver.

15. 2026-05-26
    listed $429,990 Active 1222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1222 chars)

    Your home search is over! Step into this beautifully updated, well cared for home. Just move in and enjoy! Updated features include custom blinds thru out for light and privacy. Designer backsplash on kitchen wall ads an extra bit of design, ceiling fans thru out for fresh air and an electronic front door lock for convenience and security. Enjoy 3 generous sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms (including a larger soaking tub in primary bath), a nice size laundry room and a comfortable great room to enjoy good food, great conversation and entertainment. Kitchen features a spacious walk-in pantry, all kitchen appliances including refrigerator with water and ice dispenser and an island for those casual meals and conversation. The yard has both front and back sprinklers and an inviting back patio and back yard to enjoy those beautiful spring, summer and fall days and nights. Remote workers really enjoy this area for the value, space from the hustle bustle of the big city and the small town charm of this community. There is also easy access to major highways for those who don't work at home. A short drive to the Wild Animal Sanctuary, Hudson, Greeley, Loveland, Windsor and Ft. Collins and Denver.

16. 2021-10-08
    listed $405,900
17. 2021-10-08
    historical
18. 2021-10-08
    listed $405,900
19. 2021-10-08
    historical
20. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $405,900 Closed
21. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $405,900
22. 2021-04-23
    listed $405,900
23. 2021-04-23
    historical
24. 2021-04-23
    historical
25. 2021-04-23
    listed $405,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,086
• − Property taxes: −$3,250
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,879
• − Management: −$3,879
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$419
• After-tax cash flow: $5,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $429,990 IRES
• 2026-05-26 Listed $429,990 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Listed $405,900 IRES
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Listed $405,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $405,900 IRES
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $405,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-23 Listed $405,900 IRES
• 2021-04-23 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-23 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-23 Listed $405,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+135.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,250 · -17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.