19507 Autumn Creek Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$184,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,997 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1979 5,985 sqft lot Est $274k · 33% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 19507 Autumn Creek Ln, a charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering comfortable living space. The inviting floor plan features a bright living room with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining area, and a well-sized kitchen with plenty of cabinet and counter space. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, complete with a private bath and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a full bath perfect for family, guests, or a home office setup. Enjoy outdoor living in the fenced backyard with a patio and private pool, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, slab foundation, and access to communi

Key facts

• Private pool
• Community amenities
• Patio

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE POOL
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pineforest El (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 609 students, 49% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.85%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,589
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19507 Gamble Oak Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,990 (-0%)	1mo	$234,900	$118	96
19523 Gamble Oak Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-5%)	2mo	$269,000	$142	85
19503 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,165 (+8%)	2mo	$255,000	$118	80
19319 Pine Cluster Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,993 (-0%)	1mo	$279,900	$140	77
8610 Timber View Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,724 (-14%)	2mo	$209,900	$122	70
8507 Discus Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,928 (-4%)	0mo	$274,900	$143	69
19242 Relay Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,866 (-7%)	1mo	$199,900	$107	67
8542 Lighthouse Lake Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (-5%)	2mo	$299,900	$159	66
19214 Hikers Trail Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,849 (-7%)	3mo	$159,000	$86	66
8427 Pines Place Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (-8%)	3mo	$249,900	$137	64
19311 Arbor Pines Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$111	55
19110 Baton Pass	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-11%)	3mo	$315,000	$178	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,623
• Equity at exit: $44,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $19,780
• Equity at exit: $47,411

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,701/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $389	+0% $337	+5% $285	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $246	+0% $337	+5% $428	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $384	base $337	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	23d	1	0.54mi
20204 Atascocita Shores Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,420	$1.16	0d	1	0.78mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	0.99mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	44d	1	1.12mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	18d	1	1.40mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   status Active
3. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-17
   price $184,000
5. 2025-11-03
   listed $200,000 Active
6. 2025-08-29
   historical $1,695
7. 2025-07-29
   listed $1,695
8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,701 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,701 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$4,701
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable income: $1,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10755.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $184,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Rental Removed $1,695 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-07-29 Listed for Rent $1,695 TURBOTENANT
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,701 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.