5502 Itasca St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$370,000

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,842 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 7,187 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Prime Lincoln 16 Duplex! Each of the two units features 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a 2 car garage. Seize this rare opportunity to own two highly desirable, income-generating units. Live in one and lease the other, or lease both for unmatched cash flow. Don't miss out on this unbeatable opportunity!

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Home design: Duplex (Residential income property)
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Paved road access; Frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 6 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $370k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-79/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,091/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2214% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,100 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-72,332
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,427
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,055/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,290

Max offer price $342,234

Occupancy floor —

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	3	$3,090
Total (2 units)			$3,091

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $370,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $370,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $370,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $370,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on marketlisting id $370,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $370,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    historical $1,500
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $1,500
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $370,000 Active 300-char remark
19. 2026-03-06
    price $370,000
20. 2025-09-09
    price $390,000
21. 2024-09-28
    historical $1,499
22. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,499
23. 2022-05-12
    price $1,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,771 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: +$716/yr (+$60/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$6,055
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,967
• − Management: −$2,967
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$8,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $91/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-unit duplex requires moderate repairs to the exterior and roof, with potential for significant value increase through painting and roof repair.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof shingles — Aged and likely to leak
• Major exterior brick — Weathered and in need of repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair roof shingles — Fixing the roof prevents leaks and extends the life of the property

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof shingles · Aged and likely to leak	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior brick · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair roof shingles — Fixing the roof prevents leaks and extends the life of the property ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24566.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $370,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Rental Removed $1,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $370,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $390,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Rental Removed $1,499 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,499 RENTALBEAST
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $1,500 RENT.

Property tax history

+77.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,055 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.