2109 161st Ave NW · Andover, MN 55304

$374,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1965 2.53 ac lot $328/sqft · 31% above area Est $396k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple Offers Received, Highest and Best offers due by Noon Tuesday 5/19. Great opportunity to have 2.5 acres in Andover School District! This charming 4 BR 2 Bath home just needs a few updates to make it yours. The home has beautiful hardwood floors. The home has a new roof, updated windows and siding. This one-story home is a charming and well taken care of home. The garage is heated and insulated and has a mechanics pit for doing automotive work, there are also several storage sheds on this property for ample storage.

Key facts

• Mechanics pit
• Heated garage
• Updated windows

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• HEATED GARAGE
• MECHANICS PIT
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Publicly maintained city street access; Lot approximately 2.527 acres (lot dimensions ~299 x 368 x 299 x 368)

Exterior

• Parking: Heated, insulated garage; 2-car garage (approx. 25 x 30, 750 sq ft)
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system (compliant); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One level (main living on one level); Main entry level: Main
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation (foundation dimensions approx. 44 x 27)
• Exterior features: Patio; Storage shed; Medium tree coverage; Security lights; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Wall oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Kitchen/Dining room layout
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Main-level bedroom(s); Lower-level bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main floor; One 3/4 bath in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Main-floor primary bedroom; Natural woodwork; Patio; Security lights; Washer/Dryer hookup; Partially finished basement; Block basement walls
• Laundry & utility: Lower-level laundry room; Washer/Dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-525/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Andover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#291 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rum River Elementary (math 76% / reading 70%, grade A, #44 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 863 students, 23% FRL); Oak View Middle (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B, #29 of 258 statewide, top 12%, 1,268 students, 22% FRL); Andover High School (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B-, #32 of 471 statewide, top 7%, 1,758 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anoka-Hennepin Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 395 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $288,900 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,807
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: -5.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-63,653
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-59,498
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55304

• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,944

Max offer price $367,177

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $62	+0% $-44	+5% $-150	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-158	+0% $-44	+5% $70	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $52	base $-44	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1753 156th Ln NW Andover, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	887	$2,889	$3.26	0d	3	0.78mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $374,900 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,773
• − Management: −$2,773
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$7,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Andover

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #6311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Andover, MN
• Population (ZIP): 49,452

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.68%
• Current HPI: 242.7122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $374,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,446 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.