13179 State Highway 190 · Middlesborough, KY 40977

$150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2007 5.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 3 full bath manufactured home sitting on 5.5 acres in a beautiful country setting. New roof was just installed and the large storage shed conveys with the home.

Key facts

• 5.5 acres
• New roof
• Large storage shed

Tags

• 5.5 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Building area approximately 1,904 (source: tax records)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Storage structure; Private, wooded and irregular lot; Mountain view and country setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Electric heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Crawl space basement; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Yellow Creek School Center (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 559 students, 83% FRL); Bell County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 695 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,231 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,226
• Equity at exit: $33,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,520
• Equity at exit: $33,585

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40977

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $148,178

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $32	+0% $-10	+5% $-53	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-55	+0% $-10	+5% $34	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $28	base $-10	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   status $150,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $150,000 Active 172-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bell County
• NCES district ID: 2100390
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $27,032
• Composite: 26.86/100
• National rank: #7102
• State rank: #91 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.33%
• Current HPI: 68.6113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $150,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.