58 Old Logging Rd · Stamford, CT 10576

$1,995,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,842 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2000 3.61 ac lot $412/sqft · at area comps Est $2077k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Elegant and timeless, this five-bedroom Georgian Colonial is set on a tranquil cul-de-sac, crowning a gentle rise amid sweeping meadows and striking rock outcroppings. Impeccably maintained, a two-story entry introduces interiors of classic elegance and finely crafted moldings, where gracious formal living and dining rooms unfold with ease. The magnificent music room showcases a cathedral ceiling and is flooded with natural light through oversized twelve-over-twelve windows. A sunken family room, anchored by a stately fireplace, opens through French doors to an inviting stone terrace - perfectly designed for both intimate moments and grand entertaining. A private first-floor bedroom suite w

Key facts

• 3.61 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Propane available; Septic tank; Private trash collection; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with granite counters; Eat-in kitchen area; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hydro air heating; Central air conditioning; Two wood-burning fireplaces
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite counters; High ceilings; His and hers closets; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Storage; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Basement with walk-out access (full, unfinished); Pull-down attic stairs
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.60M (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.40M (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bedford Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #211 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pound Ridge Elementary School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 238 students, 10% FRL); Fox Lane Middle School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 765 students, 38% FRL); Fox Lane High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 10% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $77k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.94M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,400,000 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,076,527
• List price: $1,995,000
• Delta: -3.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
67 Old Logging	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,785 (-1%)	10mo	$1,568,000	$328	70
197 Upper Shad Rd	0.46mi	5/3.5	4,273 (-12%)	12mo	$1,925,000	$451	45
245 Upper Shad Rd	0.61mi	4/4.5 (-1)	5,472 (+13%)	23mo	$2,660,000	$486	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $156,742
• Equity at exit: $992,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $694,725
• Equity at exit: $1,608,738

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10576

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,494 /mo · $29,925/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,940
• Net cashflow: $-2,727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,452

Max offer price $1,600,399

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,348	-5% $-2,038	+0% $-2,727	+5% $-3,416	+10% $-4,106
Rent	-10% $-3,833	-5% $-3,280	+0% $-2,727	+5% $-2,174	+10% $-1,621
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,722	-0.5pp $-2,220	base $-2,727	+0.5pp $-3,244	+1.0pp $-3,770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
448 Long Ridge Rd Bedford, NY	4.0	4.5	4866	$14,000	$2.88	45d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $1,995,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-04-20
   listed $1,995,000 Active 1396-char remark
8. 2024-12-01
   historical
9. 2024-08-28
   price $1,828,000
10. 2024-05-23
    listed $1,848,000 Active
11. 2020-11-15
    historical
12. 2020-03-01
    listed $1,699,995 Active
13. 2019-11-24
    historical
14. 2019-07-19
    price $1,749,000
15. 2019-05-07
    listed $1,889,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $168,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$29,925
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,440
• − Management: −$13,440
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable loss: −$68,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619950
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $98,055
• Composite: 53.17/100
• National rank: #1508
• State rank: #211 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #7716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 123,058
• Population (ZIP): 4,904

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 239.5803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+5.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $1,828,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Listed $1,848,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-01 Listed $1,699,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-19 Price Changed $1,749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-07 Listed $1,889,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid