4911 Battle Ln · Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1958 Est $186k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a stick built home that qualifies for a mortgage. This 2 bedroom 2 bath home is located on a corner lot. This home has a lot to offer. There’s an open layout with the Living Room, Dining Room and kitchen all open. The two bedrooms are off of the great room. There’s a laundry room off of the main bedroom and the bath is located off the great room. There’s a nice kitchen with lots of room to maneuver and it’s a great home for entertaining and for those that like an open concept. This has off street parking and a lot of yard space to enjoy. It’s a part of Laurel Lakes so there’s a beach and so much more. The lake is amazing and the association fees a

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Laundry room
• Open layout

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• OFF STREET PARKING
• YARD SPACE
• SHOWER STALL REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($644/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $169k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,317 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Mist Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	832 (-10%)	2mo	$70,000	$84	76
5211 Magnolia Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	7mo	$232,000	$242	68
5100 Magnolia Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+10%)	13mo	$218,000	$216	66
36 Walnut Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	1mo	$247,000	$257	54
110 Daffodil Rd	0.47mi	1/2.0 (-1)	858 (-7%)	5mo	$187,500	$219	54
701 Uranus Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+15%)	1mo	$200,100	$189	52
5601 Briarwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+13%)	9mo	$210,000	$202	48
232 Jute Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+4%)	13mo	$187,500	$197	46
714 Woodland Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	11mo	$215,450	$224	44
139 Jute Rd	0.55mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (+10%)	13mo	$145,000	$143	42
173 Point Breeze Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+14%)	14mo	$99,000	$94	39
119 Olive Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (+10%)	20mo	$144,500	$143	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,604
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,461
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,980/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,525

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-20
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2025-04-14
   historical
4. 2025-02-12
   listed $185,000 Active
5. 2007-01-16
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,980 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,594 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,980
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$516
• After-tax cash flow: $1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Laurel Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #22397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+98.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,980 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.