8548 Gablebend Way · Tampa, FL 33647

$197,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Townhouse public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2012 1,537 sqft lot $165/sqft · 34% below area Est $298k · 34% under $266/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful end-unit townhome in the gated community of The Hammocks— where style, privacy, and convenience come together perfectly. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a bright, open-concept main level designed for both relaxing and entertaining. The flowing layout offers a seamless connection between the living and dining areas, along with a convenient half bath for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, each offering comfort and privacy. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and ample space to unwind. As an end unit, this home enjoys added privacy and natural light, making it feel even more ope

Key facts

• $266 HOA
• Built 2012
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area about 1192 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: The Hammocks Townhomes HOA; HOA fees required (approximately $266.67/month; $800 quarterly total); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two levels; Faces southeast
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner-Bartels K-8 School (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 1,442 students, 43% FRL); Wharton High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,289 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,386 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,104
• List price: $197,000
• Delta: -33.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-52,858
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-86,366
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33647

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,047/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $153,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-191	+0% $-247	+5% $-303	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-320	+0% $-247	+5% $-173	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-197	base $-247	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8533 Gablebend Way Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1292	$1,750	$1.35	26d	1	0.01mi
8503 Brushleaf Way Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,873	$1.72	7d	1	0.07mi
8545 Trail Wind Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1144	$1,750	$1.53	26d	1	0.08mi
8519 Trail Wind Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1008	$1,700	$1.69	16d	1	0.08mi
8553 Trail Wind Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	3.0	1192	$1,650	$1.38	26d	1	0.08mi
20410 Needletree Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1410	$2,000	$1.42	26d	1	0.08mi
20460 Needletree Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1410	$2,299	$1.63	26d	1	0.09mi
6398 Colonial Grand Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,033	$1.89	0d	47	0.64mi
20404 Harvest Oak Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,200	$1.51	4d	1	0.99mi
20314 Noble Oak Pl Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,299	$1.58	23d	1	1.12mi
18940 Pebble Links Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,851	$1.77	1d	15	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $197,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $197,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $197,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-03
   listed $197,000 Active 1109-char remark
5. 2025-09-02
   listed $222,900 Active
6. 2025-01-29
   historical $1,650
7. 2025-01-29
   historical $1,650
8. 2025-01-10
   listed $1,650
9. 2025-01-09
   listed $1,650
10. 2010-06-30
    soldstatus $750,000
11. 2006-06-12
    soldstatus $1,510,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,047 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,047 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$4,047
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$6,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 74,844
• Household income: $109,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2578.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Black 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.77%
• Current HPI: 225.0483
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-87.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $222,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Rental Removed $1,650 RENT.
• 2025-01-29 Rental Removed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENT.
• 2025-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2010-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $1,510,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,047 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.