22414 Theodoli Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,250 sqft lot $169/sqft · 6% below area Est $308k · 6% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1-story home in Ventana Lakes, Katy! Built in 2021, this well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a desirable split floor plan offering both privacy and functionality. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and family room; perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen showcases granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a spacious layout overlooking the main living area. Additional features include ceiling fans throughout and an epoxy-finished garage for added durability and style. Step outside to enjoy a covered patio and a generously sized backyard, ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included—making this home truly move-in ready! Zoned to highly rated Katy ISD schools and conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-10, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly acclaimed Katy ISD schools with easy access to I-10, Grand Parkway 99, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• 1 story home
• Covered patio

Tags

• 1 STORY HOME
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EPOXY FINISHED GARAGE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 762 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,514 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,601
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -5.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4311 Nervesa Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,766 (+3%)	1mo	$280,000	$159	88
4214 Fornari Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,786 (+4%)	4mo	$305,000	$171	88
4315 Isoletta Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+3%)	6mo	$280,000	$158	85
4310 Fornari Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+6%)	8mo	$295,000	$161	79
22623 Loreto Costa Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,756 (+2%)	1mo	$296,000	$169	78
22818 Theodoli Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,630 (-5%)	4mo	$309,000	$190	74
4403 Salerno Gulf Way	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,780 (+4%)	6mo	$294,000	$165	70
4314 Verona Hills Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,831 (+6%)	9mo	$295,000	$161	68
4523 Verona Hills Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+5%)	5mo	$305,000	$169	66
22914 San Giorgio Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+10%)	4mo	$299,999	$159	60
22526 Belmont Cove Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,930 (+12%)	9mo	$274,999	$142	47
4318 Fenetre Forest St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+14%)	2mo	$310,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,267
• Equity at exit: $66,251

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-102,061
• Equity at exit: $66,421

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,403/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $204,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-320	-5% $-402	+0% $-484	+5% $-566	+10% $-648
Rent	-10% $-684	-5% $-584	+0% $-484	+5% $-384	+10% $-284
Rate	-1.0pp $-338	-0.5pp $-410	base $-484	+0.5pp $-559	+1.0pp $-636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	23d	1	0.36mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	0d	1	0.41mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,184	$1.36	0d	1	0.46mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	25d	1	0.46mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	12d	1	0.47mi
3819 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,050	$1.56	45d	1	0.58mi
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	45d	1	0.59mi
23100 Clay Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,299	$2.33	0d	36	0.64mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.73mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	6d	1	0.74mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.74mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	6d	1	0.74mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.75mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	0.76mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	0.76mi
22743 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,309	$1.92	45d	1	0.78mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	6d	1	0.78mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	18d	1	0.78mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.78mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	16d	1	0.79mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	0.80mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	18d	1	0.80mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	0.80mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.81mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	6d	1	0.81mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	6d	1	0.81mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.81mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	0.82mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	0.82mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	16d	1	0.82mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	6d	1	0.82mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	25d	1	0.82mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	25d	1	0.82mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	0d	1	0.83mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	14d	1	0.84mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	0d	1	0.84mi
3200 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,357	$2.20	0d	30	0.86mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	16d	1	0.87mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	3d	1	0.89mi
3206 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,279	$1.48	45d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Pending 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $290,000 Pending 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $290,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Pending 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Pending 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Pending 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    status $299,900 Pending 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $299,900 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Beautiful 1-story home in Ventana Lakes, Katy! Built in 2021, this well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a desirable split floor plan offering both privacy and functionality. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and family room; perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen showcases granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a spacious layout overlooking the main living area. Additional features include ceiling fans throughout and an epoxy-finished garage for added durability and style. Step outside to enjoy a covered patio and a generously sized backyard, ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included—making this home truly move-in ready! Zoned to highly rated Katy ISD schools and conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-10, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly acclaimed Katy ISD schools with easy access to I-10, Grand Parkway 99, shopping, and dining.

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $315,000 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Beautiful 1-story home in Ventana Lakes, Katy! Built in 2021, this well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a desirable split floor plan offering both privacy and functionality. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and family room; perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen showcases granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a spacious layout overlooking the main living area. Additional features include ceiling fans throughout and an epoxy-finished garage for added durability and style. Step outside to enjoy a covered patio and a generously sized backyard, ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included—making this home truly move-in ready! Zoned to highly rated Katy ISD schools and conveniently located near shopping, dining, I-10, and Grand Parkway 99. Zoned to highly acclaimed Katy ISD schools with easy access to I-10, Grand Parkway 99, shopping, and dining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,403 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,403 · $700/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$8,403
• − Insurance: −$2,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,430
• − Management: −$2,430
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-story home in Ventana Lakes, built in 2021, offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It is ideal for both resale and rental due to its split floor plan and open-concept layout.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $315,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+78.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,403 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.