6927 53rd St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2026 5,388 sqft lot $156/sqft · 18% below area Est $335k · 18% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Modern kitchen
• Open-concept living

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT ENTRYWAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westwind El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Heritage Middle (math 47% / reading 59%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 766 students, 42% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $207,071 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,412
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -18.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-69,029
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-107,122
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $233,094

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-195	+0% $-290	+5% $-385	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-453	-5% $-371	+0% $-290	+5% $-208	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-220	base $-290	+0.5pp $-361	+1.0pp $-433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5014 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,800	$1.26	23d	1	0.14mi
7036 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	23d	1	0.81mi
5805 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	0.84mi
7022 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	45d	1	0.88mi
7024 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	45d	1	0.88mi
6003 Venita Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.89mi
5865 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,749	$1.17	45d	1	0.93mi
3701 Rochester Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2054	$1,750	$0.85	45d	1	0.95mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	45d	1	1.09mi
3414 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	15d	1	1.15mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	45d	1	1.15mi
6140 71st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,550	$1.15	15d	1	1.22mi
7619 59th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2271	$2,695	$1.19	15d	1	1.28mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	23d	1	1.34mi
7420 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.38mi
6110 36th St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1636	$1,100	$0.67	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $275,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $297,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $297,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $297,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $297,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    status Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

19. 2026-04-29
    historical 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

20. 2026-04-22
    status Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

21. 2026-04-14
    status Active 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    Buy NOW and get up to $10,000 Use-It-Your-Way Cash! Step into comfort and style with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a timeless brick exterior and a welcoming covered front entryway. Inside, luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the spacious open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen is a true centerpiece, boasting granite or quartz countertops, a large peninsula with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized enclosed pantry for ample storage. A cozy corner brick fireplace adds warmth and charm to the living space. Retreat to the secluded master suite, complete with a spa-like bathroom featuring a relaxing drop-in tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet with convenient access to the utility room. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the covered back patio, and take advantage of the 2-car garage for added convenience. With premium plumbing and lighting fixtures throughout, this home blends quality craftsmanship with modern comfort—ready for you to move in and make it your own.

22. 2026-03-28
    status Pending 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

23. 2026-03-28
    historical 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

24. 2026-03-20
    listed $297,000 Active 1158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

    Buy NOW and get up to $10,000 Use-It-Your-Way Cash! Step into comfort and style with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a timeless brick exterior and a welcoming covered front entryway. Inside, luxury vinyl plank flooring flows seamlessly through the spacious open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen is a true centerpiece, boasting granite or quartz countertops, a large peninsula with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized enclosed pantry for ample storage. A cozy corner brick fireplace adds warmth and charm to the living space. Retreat to the secluded master suite, complete with a spa-like bathroom featuring a relaxing drop-in tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet with convenient access to the utility room. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the covered back patio, and take advantage of the 2-car garage for added convenience. With premium plumbing and lighting fixtures throughout, this home blends quality craftsmanship with modern comfort—ready for you to move in and make it your own.

25. 2026-03-17
    price $297,000 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

26. 2026-02-12
    price $309,310 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

27. 2025-10-22
    price $301,310 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

28. 2025-10-21
    listed $300,310 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Listed $297,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $297,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $309,310 Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $301,310 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Listed $300,310 Zillow