22509 Carter · Good Hope, CA 92570

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1977 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * cash only * * * Investors bring your tools * * *

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total units: 1
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Rural community setting

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story
• Construction: Year built per assessor; No ADU; No common walls (detached)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the main floor; One-level layout; Entry on the 1st floor
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities indicated

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,418 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Perris Union High (suburban): math 21% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Enchanted Hills Elementary (479 students, 85% FRL); Pinacate Middle (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #426 of 498 statewide, top 86%, 927 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 72% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Perris Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,069
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $43,558
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92570

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $581	+0% $525	+5% $468	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $440	+0% $525	+5% $609	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $575	base $525	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Florablanca Ct Perris, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,500	$3.00	0d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 243.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $3,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $5,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perris Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630210
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,210
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6439
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Good Hope

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #1418
• US rank: #27561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Good Hope, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,082
• Household income: $79,393
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1140.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 15% White 14% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 65% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.72%
• Current HPI: 460.1716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $199,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.