717 County Road 2218 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$186,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2018 0.71 ac lot $105/sqft · at area comps Est $210k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This welcoming home, is located in a well established community known as Tarkington Prairie Texas. The Tarkington ISD is a highly recognized school district. This Tarkington community also features No Deed restrictions. This great home, greets you with a sitting room upon entry that flows naturally into the kitchen, setting a warm and connected tone throughout. The kitchen shines with an island and bar seating, flowing into the dining area and living room for an easy, open feel. The primary suite offers a luxurious ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide all the flexibility you need, and outside, the large yard d

Key facts

• Living room
• Dining area
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• SITTING ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BAR SEATING
• DINING AREA
• LIVING ROOM
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2018; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Backs to greenbelt/park; Part of a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,880 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,000
• List price: $186,000
• Delta: -11.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,636
• Equity at exit: $27,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $23,073
• Equity at exit: $16,082

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $186,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $347	+0% $295	+5% $242	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $224	+0% $295	+5% $365	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $342	base $295	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1004-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $186,000 Active 1004-char remark
3. 2001-04-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,404 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,616/yr (+$218/mo · 331.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable income: $483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $3,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2001-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+31.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · -64.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.