8615 N Hwy 89 N Unit 10 S · South Willard, UT 84340

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1995 435 sqft lot $650/mo HOA · 54% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There are no remarks available.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Lake views
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEWLY BUILT BACK PORCH
• LAKE VIEWS
• CUL-DE-SAC
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on the east side of Hwy 89 in Willard
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $650; HOA amenities include RV parking, management, and snow removal; Subdivision: COLEMAN MOBILE HOME COURT

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces (4 open); Common RV parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected and septic tank; Culinary water; Irrigation water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-level living; Faces north; Residential use
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Built and standing condition
• Exterior features: Double-pane windows; Open porch; Cul-de-sac lot; Paved road access; Hilly terrain; Lake and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range/oven
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas central); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet; Free-standing range/oven
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-482/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $44k (11.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#109 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Box Elder District (town): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #38 of 80 in UT (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard School (298 students, 24% FRL); Box Elder High (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #65 of 171 statewide, top 39%, 1,583 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 461 units permitted in Box Elder County in 2024 (62 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Box Elder County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,186 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-10,243
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-10,518
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84340

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $44,186

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-11
   status Active
3. 2026-04-29
   status Under Contract
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $50,000 Active
5. 2025-04-07
   soldstatus Closed 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

6. 2025-04-04
   status Under Contract 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

7. 2025-03-19
   price $39,900 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

8. 2025-03-16
   price $49,900 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

9. 2025-02-17
   price $69,900 31-char remark

   Show marketing remark (31 chars)

   There are no remarks available.

10. 2025-01-22
    listed $79,900 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

11. 2002-06-12
    historical
12. 2001-12-12
    listed $44,900
13. 2000-07-26
    historical
14. 2000-01-26
    listed $13,500
15. 1999-12-07
    historical
16. 1999-09-10
    listed $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable loss: −$865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$208
• After-tax cash flow: $-274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Box Elder District
• NCES district ID: 4900090
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,796
• Composite: 36.3/100
• National rank: #4698
• State rank: #38 of 80 in UT

Livability — South Willard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #9332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Willard, UT
• Population (ZIP): 3,386

Population outlook (Box Elder County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,528 people
• By 2030: 56,848 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 58,697 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 59,164 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 55,699 · +0.3%
• By 2100: 45,932 · -17.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Box Elder

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.8) · D 18.2% · R 79.0% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -60.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.8 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+78.2 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.21%
• Current HPI: 274.2938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

+222.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — WFRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $50,000 WFRMLS
• 2025-04-07 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2025-04-04 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $39,900 WFRMLS
• 2025-03-16 Price Changed $49,900 WFRMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $69,900 WFRMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listed $79,900 WFRMLS
• 2002-06-12 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 2001-12-12 Listed $44,900 WFRMLS
• 2000-07-26 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 2000-01-26 Listed $13,500 WFRMLS
• 1999-12-07 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 1999-09-10 Listed $15,500 WFRMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,645 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.