5982 Waukegan Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2000 0.44 ac lot $80/sqft · 15% below area Est $229k · 15% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This specious and well-maintained mobile home is nestled on a generous, good-sized lot. Enjoy relaxing on the oversized covered porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Inside, you'll find four bedrooms plus a versatile study that can easily serve as an additional bedroom or flex space. The primary suite offers comfort and convenience with his-and-hers closets. At the same time, the recently updated secondary bath features a modern double vanity. The kitchen includes a cozy breakfast area with a built-in table, creating the perfect spot for family meals. Outdoors, pet lovers will appreciate the fenced kennel area, ideal for furry friends.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• His-and-hers closets
• Double vanity

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• STUDY
• HIS-AND-HERS CLOSETS
• DOUBLE VANITY
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FENCED KENNEL AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Forest Trace community association; Annual association fee of $363

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2000; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Cleared lot; Additional parcel(s) included

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15 x 17; Bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 15; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 15; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 15
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.21%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -14.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7126 Jessica Leann Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-12%)	5mo	$175,000	$82	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,725
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $48,561
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.61mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	0.66mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	43d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $195,000 Active 676-char remark
15. 2023-12-31
    historical $1,650
16. 2023-11-23
    listed $1,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,835/yr (+$236/mo · 386.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $3,672
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $5,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11718.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2023-11-23 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.