16528 N 181st Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$410,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2014 7,814 sqft lot $186/sqft · 10% below area Est $455k · 10% under $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

Key facts

• Pavered patio
• Mature landscaping
• Artificial turf

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PAVERED PATIO
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• ARTIFICIAL TURF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-535 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,509 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,939
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -9.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18109 W Bridger St	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,285 (+3%)	4mo	$450,000	$197	88
18254 W Young St	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,089 (-6%)	2mo	$539,000	$258	80
16291 N 182nd Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,089 (-6%)	5mo	$415,500	$199	75
16178 N 180th Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,103 (-5%)	0mo	$470,000	$223	71
18335 W Lundberg St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,024 (-8%)	2mo	$412,000	$204	63
17937 W Westpark Blvd	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,167 (-2%)	3mo	$469,900	$217	63
18223 W Paradise Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (-12%)	2mo	$439,900	$227	59
18349 W Marshall Ln W	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+9%)	2mo	$599,000	$249	58
18221 W Carmen Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,346 (+6%)	0mo	$450,000	$192	56
18196 W Ivy Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,346 (+6%)	2mo	$394,000	$168	55
18472 W Marshall Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+9%)	3mo	$590,000	$245	53
18328 W Saguaro Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,519 (+14%)	2mo	$388,250	$154	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-48,185
• Equity at exit: $124,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-55,233
• Equity at exit: $154,912

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,232

Max offer price $315,476

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18188 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,200	$1.13	43d	1	0.15mi
18096 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,315	$1.12	43d	1	0.18mi
18272 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,145	$0.94	43d	1	0.18mi
16367 N 183rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2398	$6,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.19mi
16124 N 180th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,795	$0.94	5d	1	0.24mi
18068 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2273	$2,100	$0.92	4d	1	0.24mi
18184 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,895	$1.13	24d	1	0.42mi
18089 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,101	$0.91	24d	1	0.45mi
17774 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2263	$2,150	$0.95	5d	1	0.50mi
17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,800	$1.28	43d	1	0.51mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,460	$0.92	2d	1	0.52mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,790	$1.05	43d	1	0.52mi
17085 N 184th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1692	$1,799	$1.06	24d	1	0.52mi
17115 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2096	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.58mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	43d	1	0.61mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	1d	1	0.61mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	18d	1	0.62mi
17325 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2275	$2,015	$0.89	43d	1	0.66mi
17421 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1898	$1,855	$0.98	12d	1	0.72mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	4d	1	0.75mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	43d	1	0.77mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	18d	1	0.79mi
17593 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,695	$1.01	1d	1	0.80mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,290	$1.02	3d	1	0.81mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,265	$1.00	1d	1	0.81mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	17d	1	0.83mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	0.84mi
18515 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2254	$2,300	$1.02	5d	1	0.85mi
15225 N 185th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	2941	$5,000	$1.70	21d	1	0.86mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	43d	1	0.88mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	24d	1	0.89mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,149	$1.21	5d	1	0.92mi
18374 W Weatherby Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2631	$2,295	$0.87	43d	1	1.00mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	43d	1	1.06mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	43d	1	1.08mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	11d	1	1.09mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	5d	1	1.10mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	11d	1	1.11mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	43d	1	1.14mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	2d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Active 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

3. 2026-03-18
   status Pending 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

4. 2026-03-18
   price $410,000 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

5. 2026-03-13
   price $399,000 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

6. 2026-01-10
   price $446,990 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

7. 2025-11-21
   price $447,990 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

8. 2025-11-13
   listed $449,990 Active 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   Exquisitely upgraded home in the heart of Surprise Farms! Corner lot with beautiful greenbelt out front of home. This spacious 4-bedroom plus den layout offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. The chef's kitchen features beautiful cabinetry, granite countertops, a center island, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a walk-in pantry ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. The primary suite provides a serene retreat with dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Step outside to a gorgeous backyard with a pavered patio, mature landscaping, and low-maintenance artificial turf perfect for relaxing or entertaining in style.

9. 2025-11-06
   historical $2,200
10. 2025-11-05
    historical
11. 2025-10-11
    price $439,000
12. 2025-10-09
    price $2,200
13. 2025-10-03
    price $445,000
14. 2025-09-16
    listed $2,500
15. 2025-08-19
    price $455,000
16. 2025-07-24
    price $463,000
17. 2025-07-07
    listed $467,000 Active
18. 2023-05-02
    soldstatus $439,900 Closed
19. 2023-05-02
    soldstatus $439,900
20. 2023-04-01
    status Pending
21. 2023-03-23
    price $439,900
22. 2023-03-16
    status Active
23. 2023-03-16
    price $475,000
24. 2023-03-03
    historical
25. 2023-02-25
    price $485,000
26. 2023-02-09
    listed $499,900 Active
27. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus $324,900 Closed
28. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus $324,900
29. 2020-07-27
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2020-07-15
    listed $324,900 Active
31. 2020-07-09
    historical
32. 2020-07-06
    listed $319,900 Active
33. 2020-03-03
    historical
34. 2020-03-01
    listed $314,900 Active
35. 2018-05-25
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed
36. 2018-05-23
    soldstatus $280,000
37. 2018-04-20
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
38. 2018-04-11
    price $280,000
39. 2018-04-07
    price $286,500
40. 2018-03-30
    listed $289,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$13,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+41.6% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $410,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $399,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $446,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $447,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $449,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Rental Removed $2,200 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $439,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $2,200 ARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $445,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed for Rent $2,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $455,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $463,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $467,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $439,900 Public Records
• 2023-05-02 Sold (MLS) $439,900 ARMLS
• 2023-04-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $439,900 ARMLS
• 2023-03-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $475,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-02-25 Price Changed $485,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Listed $499,900 ARMLS
• 2020-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $324,900 Public Records
• 2020-08-27 Sold (MLS) $324,900 ARMLS
• 2020-07-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-07-15 Listed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2020-07-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-07-06 Listed $319,900 ARMLS
• 2020-03-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-03-01 Listed $314,900 ARMLS
• 2018-05-25 Sold (MLS) $280,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-20 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2018-04-07 Price Changed $286,500 ARMLS
• 2018-03-30 Listed $289,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,844 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.