1251 Woodbury Ct · Grain Valley, MO 64029

$349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2002 0.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Occupied Duplex. Units are 6 years old. There are others on the same street that could be part of a package deal.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (property has a garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Independent heating and air for each unit; Independent water heaters for each unit
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick veneer exterior; Lot approximately 11,326 square feet (per public records)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Each unit is a 2-bedroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Two-unit residential income property (duplex)
• Laundry & utility: Each unit has independent heating and air systems; Each unit has its own water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($854/yr) — positive. Per door: $36/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Grain Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in MO, #3,383 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Grain Valley R-V (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $299,700 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-39,402
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $27,807
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64029

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,850/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,907

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 93%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,998
Total (2 units)			$2,997

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1282 NW Phelps Ct Unit 1282 Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.5	1288	$1,550	$1.20	12d	1	0.09mi
412 NW Woodbury Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	2025	$1,650	$0.81	24d	1	0.24mi
1402 NE Mary Ct Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.5	1316	$1,595	$1.21	7d	1	0.30mi
1500 NE Shale Ct Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,845	$1.29	17d	1	0.38mi
1519 NE Erin Ct Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.46mi
901 NW Hilltop Ln Grain Valley, MO	4.0	3.0	1971	$2,305	$1.17	21d	1	0.50mi
203 NE Katie Ct Grain Valley, MO	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,580	$1.20	2d	1	0.51mi
316 NE Coldwater Creek Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,516	$1.12	44d	1	0.52mi
630 Yennie St Grain Valley, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,819	$1.73	2d	15	0.64mi
1108 NW Golfview Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	1.5	1364	$1,890	$1.39	7d	1	0.77mi
1305 NW High View Dr Grain Valley, MO	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,245	$1.16	44d	1	0.83mi
930 NW Scenic Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	24d	1	0.83mi
1015 NW Willow Dr Grain Valley, MO	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,395	$0.88	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 41-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $349,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,850 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,850 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,850
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,877
• − Management: −$2,877
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$5,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grain Valley R-V
• NCES district ID: 2913080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2888
• State rank: #30 of 324 in MO

Livability — Grain Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #3383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grain Valley, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 21,961
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 21,961
• Household income: $91,704
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 228.5568
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+105.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $349,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-01 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-03 Listed $169,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,850 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.