4654 Skyline Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$60,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1993 ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 Doublewide located on a large corner lot in the Lake Palestine community of Sunrise Shores. Great size bedrooms, open floor plan and plenty of storage. Attached carport with storage building and additional covered parking are the perfect place for your boat or RV. Upgrades in the last year include new kitchen flooring and appliances (stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer).

Key facts

• Lake community
• Brownsboro isd
• Lake palestine

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BROWNSBORO ISD
• LAKE PALESTINE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• LAKE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured (mobile) home; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fence; Located on Lake Palestine

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air; Electric central heating; Dishwasher; Electric oven and range; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brownsboro El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 429 students, 66% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.79%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,592
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20871 Woodwind Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-11%)	4mo	$62,000	$52	58
4542 Pineview Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-12%)	22mo	$140,000	$118	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $34,745
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $87,703
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $731	-5% $714	+0% $697	+5% $680	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $638	+0% $697	+5% $756	+10% $816
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $712	base $697	+0.5pp $682	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 679-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    listed $70,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $7,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,904
• After-tax cash flow: $6,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunrise Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $70,000 GTAR
• 2024-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-05 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2024-04-05 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2024-03-28 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-03-20 Listed $89,500 GTAR
• 2024-03-20 Listed $89,500 LAAR
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-22 Listed $79,000 GTAR
• 2022-02-06 Listed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-01-25 Price Changed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-27 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2003-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.