2208 W Baseline Ave #102 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very spacious 3 -bedroom 2- bathroom with a large kitchen and open living room. The Bathrooms have new sink fixtures. There is a nice workshop and a 290 sq ft extra room for additional gatherings. The double carport is nice for parking. The park has a clubhouse, fitness center heated pool, billiard's, library, shuffle board and craft room

Key facts

• Open living room
• Clubhouse
• Extra room

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• NEW SINK FIXTURES
• WORKSHOP
• EXTRA ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Spa is heated
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease fee; Land lease fee $891 per month; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Biking/walking paths; Association fee includes: other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Leasehold ownership; Manufactured/mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Storage; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Full bath in primary bedroom; Separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,240/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 686% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.91%
• DSCR: 5.40
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2208 W Baseline Ave #153	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	16mo	$115,000	$73	80
2208 W Baseline Ave #146	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	13mo	$125,500	$80	77
2208 W Baseline Ave #115	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-2%)	23mo	$70,000	$45	71
2208 W Baseline Ave #94	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	9mo	$122,500	$73	69
2208 W Baseline Ave #21	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	15mo	$154,900	$92	69
3700 S Ironwood Dr Lot 134	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-5%)	10mo	$40,000	$27	66
2208 W Baseline Ave #190	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-11%)	12mo	$105,000	$75	61
2208 W Baseline Ave #87	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	58
2208 W Baseline Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	21mo	$110,000	$82	53
3700 S Ironwood Dr #196	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	22mo	$95,000	$65	48
2208 W Baseline Ave #88	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-12%)	23mo	$140,000	$102	48
3700 S Ironwood Dr #152	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	24mo	$125,000	$93	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $70,632
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.96×
• Total profit: $147,946
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $1,362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2611 W Gypsum Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.5	2001	$2,235	$1.12	1d	1	0.27mi
3454 S Warner Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.38mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #45 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,649	$1.53	43d	1	0.94mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #60 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1371	$2,600	$1.90	1d	1	0.94mi
2065 W 20th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,850	$1.67	12d	1	1.10mi
2043 S Thunderbird Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,925	$1.43	24d	1	1.22mi
11401 E Medina Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,600	$1.31	17d	1	1.25mi
650 W 22nd Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1564	$2,635	$1.68	5d	1	1.40mi
932 W 19th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,995	$1.20	24d	1	1.42mi
1446 S Palo Verde Dr Unit apache Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,700	$1.40	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $16,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,930
• After-tax cash flow: $12,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to improve its appearance and functionality, with a focus on the kitchen and exterior. Fresh paint and updated cabinets would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — New sink fixtures
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Interior walls/paint — Faded paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · New sink fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls/paint · Faded paint	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$9,500–48,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $59,000 ARMLS